Forest river impression 5th wheel
Chicago's Northwest Side
2013.11.08 00:43 nwsidemadman Chicago's Northwest Side
Chicago Northwest Side Neighborhood News, Events, Conversation
2016.05.12 17:27 chillaxin4life Milwaukee's Bicycle Community
Welcome to Milwaukee's bike subreddit! From the urban commuters to the beach cruisers, everyone and their bike is welcome here for newbie advice, pro events, and everything in between! Bike maps and bike shops are listed in the wiki.
2023.06.10 02:43 ChaoticDominance Nice Sunset Meditation Spot
| The first is in Downtown, next to the Lighted Forest. This area is poop free and gets a lot of the sunset. There's a bench that also gets it. The 2nd is the Michigan Ave and Grand River Ave intersection. submitted by ChaoticDominance to lansing [link] [comments] |
2023.06.10 02:28 XsnowcapeX California State Park Map (Complete)
2023.06.10 02:27 princessrockyblue more couples stuff
He is a blue-colored Faun with short blue hair and aqua-blue eyes. He has deer-like ears that often told his emotions, a deer-like tail, and very long limbs. His forearms and lower legs are covered in darker colored fur.
"Hi my name's Mune!"
Mune spotted something he saw a red hood, then he was chasing her, she was hit by the trees and mune carried her to his night forest he put her on the grass he check her and takes off her hood and he finds out it was a pink female hedgehog named amy rose, she was asleep, he touches her soft body and feels it, amy wakes up she starts blushing at him and she covers her chest
Oh you're so warm! Um... I know it probably looks bad, but can I spend another night here? I- I'm a bit shaken and I- you feel so safe... I snuggle up to you and bury my head into her chest and start purring.
Mune blushes and he felt good about this he touches her again and rubs his fingers in her hair and he is starting to like this, amy says
"What are you doing Mune?"
I I'm help you relax a little bit softly said mune
Mune begins to smelling her body she opens her eyes she couldn't believe what she just saw she blushed so much that her face was redder than mune's fur and she asks
"Why are you smelling me Mune?
Because you smell like flowers said mune
Oh ok said amy rose with the shy look on her face.
Then mune gives amy a lick on her nose and she giggles cutely he smiles and rubs her nose more and he then takes off her hoodie and looks at her red short dress and he kisses her body under her dress she moans softly and he then starts rubbing her soft belly and kisses her all over, she moaned again
"You're making me feel so good."
She then kisses his lips and they start making out she wraps her arms around his neck and rubs his ears and he rubs her body under her dress she moans some more.
Then he take off her right sleeve and touch her chest really softly
She looks at mune and she kiss him on the cheeks
He is feeling more warm than before he rubs her body more, he touches her belly and her back and her hips. He rubs his fingers all over her soft body, she rubs her hands on his neck and back and he then rubs his fingers on her cheeks she smiles and gigg
Mune starts wagging his tail and looks at her wen she very shy
Then she gives him a kiss on the lips and he kisses back and rubs her cheeks with his finger tips. She blushes and puts her hands on his chest. He rubs her hips and belly and her chest, she moans again and starts kissing his neck and shoulders and rubs his
I like hanging out with you amy said mune
"Me too" said amy rose
They continue kissing on the neck and his body and on her body and his hands touch her chest and rubs them softly, she starts panting and moaning cutely and she looks at him with the red face and rubs his head and he rubs
Then wen their done amy stands up and looks at the stars
I'm thirsty mune can you get some water form the river said amy
"OK" said mune
He goes down to the river and comes back with the water he give it to amy and she starts drinking it and says
"Thank you mune!"
He sits next to her and she smiles and rubs his ear she gives him a kiss on the cheek
They go to bed and they both fell asleep. The next morning mune is up and looking at amy rose sleeping, he then puts her hoodie back on her body she starts moving in her sleep and mune rubs her belly softly she smiles and snuggle more he rubs her stomach softly and wakes her up
She wakes up and hugs him and says
"Good morning Mune"
She then rubs his head and kisses him on the cheek, he blushes and rubs her back and kisses her back
Mune do you like my pink purple long socks said amy
"Yeah I do, they're very soft" said mune
They go down to the river and she puts her shoes on and they start playing together she splashs him and he does the same to her he grabs her and throws her in the water she comes out and spits out the on to her. She laughs and he does too. He gives her a kiss on her forehead and she wipes her face and says
"Thank you for everything"
I know where you live amy said mune
"Yeah, your home is very nice" said amy
I will see you again
submitted by
princessrockyblue to
evantubehdweareheros [link] [comments]
2023.06.10 01:51 backiron AI Composes Music
Completely composed by AI, just a few words can generate a piece with rhythm and performance. It's impressive
(Verse 1) Walking on Saskatoon streets, bathed in the sun, Breeze brushes my face, children's laughter, the day has begun. Wild deer in the distance, their freedom is such a sight, This beautiful picture, under the day's gentle light.
(Chorus) Saskatoon, oh Saskatoon, under the prairie sky so wide, Your beauty unfolds, with every stride. In your arms, I find my peace, my heart takes flight, Saskatoon, oh Saskatoon, in your light I abide.
(Verse 2) In the heart of Canada, where the wild rivers flow, Your spirit is a song, in the wind that gently blows. The sunsets paint the sky, with hues so deep and bright, Saskatoon, you're a symphony, that dances into the night.
(Chorus) Saskatoon, oh Saskatoon, under the stars that shine so bright, Your magic surrounds me, in the soft moonlight. In your embrace, I found my muse, my soul's delight, Saskatoon, oh Saskatoon, you're my song in the night.
https://reddit.com/link/145ksql/video/8uf2ihufy25b1/player submitted by
backiron to
saskatoon [link] [comments]
2023.06.10 01:15 CringeyVal0451 Two Girls, One Cuck (Funky P. Beard, Part 6)
Chapter 6: Two Girls, One Cuck
Me: Is he always like this during gaming weekends, or is this all my fault?
Athena: He’s always ranting and raving about his crusade of the week. And he usually gets into a screaming match with Mori over something dumb. But this is some next-level rage.
Sage (to Athena): You ummm... told...
Athena: She knows, babe. She already knew.
Sage: Okay. So sorry about that, by the way.
Me: It’s fine. It’s nothing new.
Sage: He usually has some nasty chick come over on Friday or Saturday. They go... do whatever they do, and then he comes back either completely chill or completely enraged. And fucking RANK.
Me: Maybe I should have packed his fleshlight for him.
Axton: Why the hell does he need a fleshlight when he’s got you?
Me: Oh, he hardly ever tries to do anything with me. And the last few times he tried; he was too plastered.
Snorlax: Whisky wang?
Me: Bingo.
Axton: That’s criminally negligent. Do you need a hug?
I smiled. “It’s fine. The whisky wang lets me off the hook. But I’m not gonna turn down a hug.”
I crawled over to him and let his arms envelop me. As I had been starved for affection for nearly a year, this was better than sex. Underneath the general aura of cigarette smoke and whiskey that permeated the room, I could smell his skin. It was intoxicating. So I nestled into that rare, delicate balance of euphoria and tranquility until we heard the back door open and close. Axton and I scrambled to opposite sides of the room. But it was just Mori.
Mori (grinning mischievously): What did I walk in on?
Athena: Nothing that would excite you, Mori.
Mori approached me and sat down. “I think he’s chilled out. Right now, he just needs to know that you’re not mad at him. Are you up for going to talk to him.”
I blinked. “I am mad at him. I’m embarrassed. And anything I say to him is just gonna piss him off.” Plus, I was high as a fucking kite on Adderall and affection. “Let me think about it for a minute?”
I considered a novel approach. After the puke-inducing fight that he’d had with Mori last night, they had made peace. I decided I would mimic Mori’s actions and try call a truce with as few words as possible, which would ideally prevent FPB wasting hours playing the victim and assassinating my character.
Me: I’ll let him know that it’s chill. That’s all I can do.
Mori nodded.
I headed for the back door and stepped onto the porch.
Me: FPB?
He grunted. He was sitting slumped in a chair on the porch, smoking a cigarette. I moved around so that I was standing in front of him and I offered my hand.
Me: Peace?
FPB: From now on, you only talk to Athena and Sage. No talking to ANY of the single dudes.
He was pointing his cigarette at me and punctuating each phrase with a little jab of the cherry in my direction.
Me: That’s not reasonable. Would you prefer it if I just left? How am I supposed to play if I’m not allowed to talk to half the people on the team? Or the GM?
FPB: Then you only talk about game-related stuff. Mori’s junk doesn’t go anywhere near you, you don’t share beer with Snorlax, and you don’t so much as look at pretty boy, Axton.
Me: If it’s game-related stuff, Axton’s the one I need to be talking to the most. You talk to Snorlax when we’re planning an attack.
FPB: That’s different.
Me: HOW?
FPB: Because Snorlax isn’t trying to get in my PANTS.
So much for a succinct truce. I decided to try and steer the conversation in a different direction.
Me: I’m being serious. I tagged along this weekend so that I could try to have FUN learning to play this game you love so much. (I extended my hand more fervently.) Peace?
FPB: Swear to me that you won’t so much as look at that jizz-mopping pretty boy.
Me: Only if you swear to me that some girl didn’t come over here to hook up with you last night.
FPB went white.
Me: It is what it is. But if you get to receive booty calls here, I’m allowed to interact with your friends. ALL of them.
FPB grunted dismissively.
I wanted to say, “If you’re allowed to LICK, I’m allowed to LOOK.” Again, I refrained from deliberately angering FPB out of respect for the other people whose time was being disrupted by his rage. And he was no longer snarling and shouting. That was as about as good as it was gonna get. I went back inside and took my seat. Everyone looked at me, appearing anxious to hear what had happened.
Me: Well, he had some unreasonable demands... I refused them. But I think he’s calm enough to play again. No promises.
FPB slammed the back door and trudged back to his assigned seat.
Mori: Axton and Sage, please trade places.
FPB: Why? Do you think I’m gonna...
Mori held up his magic Funky-silencing hand. “My run, my rules.”
It was FPB’s roll. It wound up being successful. Very successful. As he entered the media station, a swarm of heavily armed guards surrounded him, but he managed to obliterate all of them, wielding a sword in one hand and an SMG with homing bullets in the other hand. This might have been just the thing we all needed to calm his ass down!
Mori: Show of hands for all who consider this an epic success!
We all voted affirmatively.
Mori: Then my Assistant GM shall prepare the finest tincture in the land for our supreme Street Samurai, Funky P. Beard.
Sage soon returned with a shot of Johnny Walker Blue. FPB sniffed it deeply, toasted to the team, and slugged it back in one gulp. I think I even saw a small smile on his face, although it was hard to tell underneath that behemoth of a beard.
I exhaled and felt myself relax as much as I could with Adderall fueling my wakefulness. I planned a super sick (albeit risky) complex action, rolled, and... got hit with Tar Baby. That was a giga-glitch.
FPB looked over at me with menacing eyes. But I had an idea.
Mori: OP, come accept a staff punishment!
Me: Game Master... Sir? FPB, our epically successful Samurai, suggested to me that I should kiss Athena instead of kissing your staff.
I glanced nervously at Athena. She was giggling. Good. I hadn’t offended her. I also glanced nervously at Sage. He was grinning from ear to ear. Good. I hadn’t offended him, either.
Mori pretended to ponder...
Mori: ACCEPTABLE! You shall kiss for 15 seconds. Assistant GM, you keep time.
Sage: No way, dude. I’m watching.
Snorlax: I’ll do it. No promises that I’ll keep my eyes on the timer.
FPB growled at him.
Athena and I turned to each other, trying to keep from laughing. This was nothing new to me. I had kissed girls onstage, at theatre parties, during games of truth or dare... And I was confident that this wouldn’t anger FPB in the slightest. If anything, it might put him in a better mood.
Snorlax: 3... 2... KISS!
Everything was fine at first. Athena was giggling, which made me giggle, but we kept our lips locked. Then, after only a few seconds... she seemed to vanish. I opened my eyes and saw that FPB had grabbed her, pulled her away, and was now dragging her to the corner of the War Room near the staircase.
FPB: YOU WICKED THUNDER-SEE-YOU-NEXT-TUESDAY! HOW DARE YOU KISS MY GIRLFRIEND?!?!
With an almost feline stride, Sage crossed the room and put FPB in a chokehold. FPB was screeching and furiously thrashing about, but Sage seemed to be trained in martial arts (couldn’t tell you which one, specifically).
FPB: OP, YOU’RE A DEMENTED SLUT. I KNOW YOU’VE BEEN HOOKING UP WITH AXTON. I KNOW YOU AND MORI HAVE BEEN SNORTING COKE OFF EACH OTHER’S ASSES. NOW YOU’RE KISSING GIRLS, TOO! I SHOULD MA...nhjsnjvB...SVJLjvvvvvv... And then he passed out.
Silence fell over the War Room.
Mori: So... You wanna go snort coke off my ass?
I laughed. “I’m good with the Addy, Mori. But thank you.”
I glanced over at Axton, and he raised his eyebrows, silently making the follow-up to Mori’s joke. I felt the corners of my mouth involuntarily turn upwards and I raised my eyebrows in return.
But the beard stirred. Sage was still in full attack mode and Athena stood by at a safe distance. I crossed the War Room and asked if FPB had hurt her. She shook her head.
Athena: No, I’m fine. I just don’t want another fight to break out.
Me: I’m so sorry. I had no idea he’d get mad about THAT.
Athena: Right?! What’s wrong with him? I thought all guys liked to watch girls kiss.
Mori made his way over to a defeated FPB and an enraged Sage.
Mori: Gentlemen... Shall we take a break from the planning phase and settle this score with some PVP?
Sage: NO. We’re not settling this in game. Funky P. Beard called my girlfriend a horrible name, he physically attacked her...
Athena: I’m fine, babe. Can we just play without FPB for a while?
Sage: Okay, maybe he didn’t hurt her. But he definitely crossed a line.
Mori: I agree. There should be consequences.
Sage: No dick slaps or looking at your butthole or sitting in your lap as “punishments” this time. Actions have natural consequences. The natural consequences are that he scared my girlfriend, he embarrassed his girlfriend, and he pissed me off. He also disrupted our game, so I assume the rest of you are pissed off?
Before anyone could answer, FPB played the victim and pretended to cry over Sage choking him out after he grabbed Athena and called her that awful name. Nobody cared. Once he realized that he wasn’t getting any sympathy, he began to rage about being forced to watch his girlfriend “cuckold” him and how he was being made to feel like he wasn’t manly since he was offended by the sight of two girls kissing. Mori used the magic Funky-silencing hand and invited the rest of us to express our grievances. He also challenged Funky to take it all in without verbally (or physically) attacking anyone.
Snorlax offered FPB some weed to help him calm down, and FPB launched into an irrational tirade about how much he hated drugs. He also mocked Snorlax for his weight, which isn’t cool. If your personality sucks, your physical appearance is fair game for mockery. Otherwise, it’s just rude. Plus, Snorlax is a cute chubby guy. They do exist.
Axton basically told him he needed to take the stick out of his ass, and FPB barked out some more accusations of lust. In the midst of these accusations, he referred to me as “his property,” and declared that I was too “shallow and FEMALE” to make my own decisions. Axton clenched his fists and took a few steps towards FPB, but Mori intervened and gave a very flowery speech about going outside and letting the fresh air carry away the aggression.
Snorlax followed Axton outside, merrily carrying a bong. The whole thing wrapped up when I said, “I’m not your property. I agreed to be your partner once upon a time, but this isn’t a healthy partnership. I’m out. I’m done trying to be a girlfriend to someone who thinks so little of me.”
This was far from the first time I’d delivered this speech to FPB, so I had it memorized. Of course, it never “hit” the way I hoped it would. FPB wasn’t contrite. He didn’t seem sad to lose me. He seemed, as always, righteously angry over having a possession confiscated. So I went to join Axton and Snorlax on the porch. Athena whispered, “Good for you, girl!” as she followed me out, leaving the principal and the vice principal to deal with the delinquent.
A lot of commotion ensued in the corner of the War Room after FPB muttered a very offensive term for “lesbian” at Athena as she exited. Mori had to physically restrain Sage from beating the tar out of FPB. Mori also apparently got a little excited whist restraining his Assistant GM, and they traded some colorful words. Athena closed the door on the hullabaloo.
The bong was bubbling away and the sweet, skunky scent of gonja filled the air.
Snorlax: Want a hit?
Me: Nah. I feel like I might have to dash any minute now if FPB keeps raging, so I need to keep my head clear.
Axton: You’re not leaving with him, are you?
Me: Hell no! I’ve got my car here, and he’s NOT coming with me if I feel like it’s time for me to ghost.
Axton: Is there any way we can vote his ass off the island and convince you to stay?
I cautiously approached the bench where Axton and Snorlax were sharing the bong. They shifted a little to make room for me, and I sat down next to a still shirtless Axton. Athena pulled up a chair next to the bench and took a tiny flask from the pocket of her PJs and slugged back a few sips of liquid tranquility.
Me: For the sake of the other people on the road, I wouldn’t let his drunk ass get behind the wheel. Does Sage have a soundproof basement where we can lock him up?
Athena: I WISH.
Axton unapologetically threw his arm around my shoulder, and I brazenly laced my fingers through his.
Athena: OP, why did you start dating FPB? That might be too personal...
Me: No, it’s fine. Believe it or not, he was incredibly nice to me at first. He thinks I keep pulling away from him because he’s too nice, but... Let’s just say that he and I have very different definitions of “nice.”
Snorlax: Maybe I’m just high, but I think he was pretty chill when we first formed the team.
Axton: I didn’t join until last year, so I’ve only known him as a raging psycho.
Me: You’re both right. That’s his M.O. He’s nice and normal until he’s secured his place.
Before I had the chance to fully explain my perception of FPB’s uncanny ability to simulate sanity, Sage and Mori stepped onto the porch, with FPB trailing dejectedly behind them.
Mori: We’ve decided to wrap it up for the night. Feel free to get drunk as hell, smoke weed, snort coke off each other’s asses, party like rockstars! We’ll reconvene at noon tomorrow.
But fucking Funky lifted his head and roared, “You’re cheating on me AGAIN???”
Me: I told you, Funky. I’m out. I quit. We’re done. And you hate my living guts, so what the hell do you care???
FPB: I didn’t agree to that. So we’re still together.
Sage: That’s not how breakups work, FPB. And what exactly is your definition of cheating?
FPB: She’s cheated on me with EVERYONE. Except you, Sage. You’re actually the only one I still trust. OP’s a SLUT.
Me: WHEN have I cheated on you?
FPB: You let Mori put his dick on your face...
Me: So did literally EVERYONE here...
Mori: Hell, I’d put it on my own face if I were flexible enough!
FPB: I’m still talking. You also stuck your hand in Mori’s butt crack. You shared a beer with Snorlax. You kissed Athena. And now you’re sitting there canoodling with Pretty Boy in front of everyone. CHEATER.
Mori threw his arm around FPB. “This? Is this a good canoodle, or is your noodle still limp?”
FPB shrugged him off. “Barf me a river, Mori. It’s the intention.”
Mori (hugging FPB around the waist): Okay, suppose I’m imagining going to Pound Town with you right now. (He added a few demonstrative pelvic thrusts.) Does that mean we’ve hooked up?
FPB flailed about until Mori let go of him, bellowed some barely intelligible insults towards everyone, made some random animal noises, and stomped back into the house. As much as I hated to see my new friends on the receiving end of his wrath, I don’t think I would have ever been able to effectively stand up to him without five witnesses to his bizarre behavior who miraculously had my back, despite having a long history of friendship with FPB.
I had tried to discuss our problems with close friends in the past, but FPB would always be on his best behavior in front of them, so I always wound up looking like the asshole. It took the presence of people with whom he felt comfortable enough to stomp around (sans mask) in order to gather witnesses to the insanity. And gather them, I had. I was FREE.
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2023.06.10 00:49 Bitterestboogie Post Red Rocks song wishlist crossouts
2023.06.10 00:44 girl-dad-x4 Looking for input
Active duty military guy and long time lurker on here about to start a move from RI to NC in a week or so. Normally when towing our 5th wheel it’s just me, but I’ll have two of the kids with me this time. After fueling, if the kids gotta hit the bathroom when I pull up, is anyone going to be upset if we run in and back out? Food stops I’ll go find a spot and get out of y’all’s hair as quick as I can.
I’ll be off the road by 3-ish both days because I know you’re looking for spots about then. Watch out for the kids’ arm pump - don’t disappoint them 😂.
Appreciate everything y’all do, I promise to not make my way on to this sub for being dumb on the road. I’ll get there when I get there.
submitted by
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2023.06.10 00:07 Gel_007 The Founding Chapter 7
June 19th, 327
We decided to construct some more structures to take care of the refugees that we rescue, assuming that this goes off without a hitch. Augustine asked Elock about the collar and she revealed that the collar had a size changing enchantment attached to it. Once the seven day period is up, the collar will shrink, crushing her airways which would instantly kill her. So Augustine teleported her back quickly which would kick step one of our plan into gear.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
cut to Elock’s pov
Shopkeeper: Hello welcome t- oh! Welcome back sir!
A: Hey there! Project took longer than expected, but luckily an extra set of hands makes heavy work pretty light!
Shopkeeper: What can I say? She’s one of the best. And also sir, if you don’t mind me asking, what were you working on? I didn’t see you anywhere in town.
A: oh- uhh I’m from the town over!
Shopkeeper: Are your memories already slipping? I paid the town next to us a visit to chat business with a friend and I never saw any structures being constructed.
A: I- I live at the far end! Perhaps you missed it.
Shopkeeper: …Alright then. have a nice day sir.
A: …you too…cya
exits
Elock: humming hm, hm, hmmm! walking towards the back
Shopkeeper: Elock…
Elock: eep! Yes sir!
Shopkeeper: Would you mind telling me what you 2 were doing?
Elock: oh! Just a house for his extended family. Nothing special.
Shopkeeper: “just a house”? Alright then…you’re off for the rest of today…go to the slave house. takes off her collar
Elock: Thank you! runs off
Shopkeeper in thought: …those eyes…they seem to both see nothing and everything at once.
Shopkeeper: I’d appreciate it if you’d look into it a bit sir.
“…”
“Very well, I’ll inform my boss about it and I’ll get to your problem right away”
Shopkeeper: thank you sir
Lulio: huh…very well then, it’ll be well worth your time I believe…
“Thank you sir”
Lulio: I think you’ll do well…Akano
Elock: bursting into the slave home owned by the shop keep Woo! Man that was nerve wracking, for a second I thought he was gonna catch on!
Thoughts: Alright! Now! Time to get on with this operation! Augustine’s counting on me and I can’t let him down!
plops down next to fellow slave
Elock: whispers hey!
Slave: eh?
Elock: um…I- words dying in her throat
Slave: …
Elock: ah- mm… you wanna get out of here?
Thoughts: Why did I say that?! I’m so stupid!
Slave: …you know they’re gonna send us back here again instantly right? Cute dream but it’s just that: a fantasy. gets up and leaves
Elock: hey, wai- sad sigh
next day
Another slave: Nice fantasy…leaves
Elock: getting demoralized
Slave: potentially losing my life by going with your outlandish proposal is a risk I’d rather not take.
Elock: defeated
the next day
Shopkeeper: Hello again sir! Another project I presume?
A: yup! I’d like to take the same slave again, she really made the work quick.
Shopkeeper: good choice! rings bell ELOCK! Get your ass over here! The nice gentlemen wants your services again!
Elock: hey A- Sir…
A: Nice to see you again. tosses gold onto the counter and leaves
A: So how'd it go?
Elock: no one was on board with the plan. They all claimed it was insane and had no conceivable way of working!
A: Expected. Not everyone has the same high risk-high reward mindset, c'mon let’s get to Zach first and then we’ll build off from there. teleports
Z: hmmmm I understand, they’re scared, they've only known brutality and slavery their entire lives. They fear that if this goes south, then they’ll be subjected to a fate worse than death itself.
Elock: look of guilt
A: I’m fully aware of the dangers that come with this. But we do get discovered, I’ll gladly take on every army they throw at me if it means that you guys would survive.
Elock: Augustine!
Z: We know how much you wanna help them Augustine, but you don’t have to take on a mountain on your own. We’re both here for you.
A: right…sorry.
Elock: please, it’s alright. We can figure out some other way. Knowing you, you’ll be able to craft something before dinner.
A: I’ll take that as a compliment. Thanks Elock.
Z: Augustine.
A: yes?
Z: Are you familiar with the concept of mental projection?
A: Somewhat, they briefly skimmed over it in training back at the facility. The art of projecting imagery into other people’s mind on the battlefield to mentally erode them.
Z: precisely, but instead of breaking will, we’ll be building it.
A: What are you saying here?
Z: What if instead of trying to get slaves to get on board via words, why don’t we let them see for themselves what waits for them if they comply?
Elock: That’s genius! When they see the paradise that could be in their hands, there’s no way they can turn that down!
A: not a terrible idea, but I don’t think I have the chops to project an image into the mind of every slave in town, my skills in that department are unfortunately pretty lacking.
Z: Why don’t we go to the island again so you can familiarize yourself with the image you’re projecting, then use the mana crystals to give yourself some extra power?
A: Smart move, let’s do it.
exits cabin
A: Alright, time to go.
teleports both of them
A: Okay let’s get down to busine…where are we?
(Instead of being greeted with the base of a mountain range, they were still in the forest. Miles away from the cabin.)
Z: I- I don’t know!
A: I didn’t do anything different! But it’s alright, I remember the direction to go in, we can still fix this.
Elock: Alright then.
10 minutes of walking later
A: Get a move on Zach! We’re almost there! Shouldn’t be much farther!
Z: Hah…I- losing his breath how are you- how are you 2 still so energetic?
Elock: I’m a leopard. I'm meant to be agile!
A: This anti magic field’s edge shouldn’t be more than a few more minutes away! We should be out in about…NOBODY MOVE!
Elock and Zach: freezes in place What's wrong?
A: …we’re not alone. Someone else is here!
Elock: I don’t hear or smell anyone else besides you guys. Are you sure?
A: Yes I’m sure! I can sense another source of energy here!
???: I would say I’m impressed that you managed to detect me since I pride myself on being able to move like a shadow…but I sort of expected this with talent like yours.
Akano: Hello Augustine, been a while hasn’t it?
A: Akano? What’re you doing here…
Akano: boss sent me to hunt you down, anonymous source requested it.
Augustine thoughts: No doubt it was that shopkeeper.
Akano: Now since we’ve spent some time together, I’ll give you 2 choices. You can drop your sword and come back with us unharmed, or I paint this forest a lovely shade of red with your blood an-
A: Bring it on…
Akano: hm. As you wish…
~~~~~
Akano dashes towards Augustine with lightning speed, expecting to end this quickly.
Akano: WIND GALE CUT!
An explosion sends a strong gust of cutting air across the forest. Zach and Elock took refuge behind a thick tree, powerless to do a damn thing to help.
Akano: oh ho! Quick on your feet are you?
Augustine who dodged into a tree: guess you can say that.
Akano: Well, I guess it’s time to turn this up a notch! pulls a strange amulet, with a large red gem resting in a gold frame
Augustine: hm?
Akano: Master Lulio entrusted me with this and I won’t let him down!
The amulet begins to glow once Akano puts it around his neck, The energy being given off was palpable from a mile away, to the point it could be severed with a knife.
Akano: CURSED GALE FURY!
The attack sends multiple large scale wind slices through out the area, yet even with this jump in power, Augustine doesn’t seem fazed with him perfectly dodging and blocking every slash as Akano watched, perplexed
Augustine: Your display of power is impressive. I'll give you that.
Akano: Keep talking little brat, the power contained within this amulet is beyond even your understanding!
Augustine: Oh really? What evidence do you have to back that theory up?
Akano: WHAT ARE YOU TRYING TO SAY?!
“What I’m saying is that even though you claim that this amulet is never before seen, you haven’t managed to land a single hit yet.” Augustine sneers.
Akano: beginning to seeth in rage
Augustine: In fact…you seem to be the most injured one so far…
Right on que, a small cut appears on Akano’s face as he looks up to see that Augustine blade is stained with his blood with a small smirk beginning to form on his face.
Akano: …You’re dead meat…
Akano launches towards the tree as Augustine simply leaps into another tree as it gets cut down, Akano sends jets of cutting wind at Augustine but he simply blocks or avoids them with seemingly zero effort. What confuses Akano even more is why he isn’t fighting back, with the worst attack he’s thrown so far being a small cut.
Akano: What’s wrong?! WHERE’S ALL THE TALK NOW HUH?!
Augustine: still dodging …
Akano: SPIRALIZING SWORD PIERCE!
Akano attempts to piledrive Augustine with his sword and successfully impales him through the chest.
Akano: GOTCHA! THIS IS THE EN-
The Augustine on his sword dematerialized as the real Augustine appears next to him
Augustine: Hey, nice effort.
With a swift kick, Augustine sends Akano flying into the trunk of a tree. Instantly causing him to cough up blood.
Augustine: I never wanted it to end this way, I apologize but this was your own doing.
Akano: barely mustering enough strength to stay conscious don’t think you’ve won yet brat…I’M FAR FROM DONE!
The amulet begins to glow a furious red as Akano leaps into the air, as he prepares to pour every last drop of his remaining strength into this attack as a last ditch effort to take Augustine down.
Elock: Is…is he gonna be alright?!
Z: Augustine has a knack for worming his way out of sticky situations, but I’m nervous even with the power he holds.
Akano: FINAL FLASH FLURRY!
Akano unleashes a maelstrom of erratic sword slashes down towards Augustine, even faster than before. Augustine increases his speed to match but still gets 2 large cuts across his torso and arm. Seeing this Akano smiles and picks up his pace, confident that he would kill him.
Akano: LOOKS LIKE YOU’RE THE INJURED ONE NOW.
Augustine: slightly pressured and tired look from dodging so much
Akano: NORMALLY I’D GIVE YOU A CHOICE TO SURRENDER RIGHT ABOUT NOW! BUT SINCE YOU HAD AN ATTITUDE I'M KILLING YOU RIGHT HERE RIGHT NO-
Akano’s face changes from glee to horror as he watches Augustine blast a tree with a fireball to launch himself to his position. Augustine was now no more than a few feet away from him and there was no way he could raise his sword up to block in time. “This is it” he thinks “This is how I’m gonna go out? Taken out by a boy turned monster?”. Everyone holds their breath as they wait for the killing blow where they watch Augustine raise his sword up to Akano’s neck, waiting for the splatter of blood to rain down on the trees…but it never comes. Instead of beheading Akano, Augustine slams the edge of his sword on the chains of the red amulet, breaking it. The amulet drops towards the forest floor and Akano’s power instantly fizzles out. The amulet clatters onto the ground as Augustine gracefully lands in a tree with Akano falling hard on his side.
Akano: I- trembling and confused at what just happened I’m alive?!
Akano looks up to see Augustine holding his amulet, looking at him, not with rage…but sympathy.
Akano: I’m…Why didn’t you kill me?!
Augustine: Because I’m not like you, slaughtering people just to fuel your own ego.
Zach and Elock observe the confrontation, in awe.
Akano: Don’t come at me with that moral high ground! And I’m not done yet! grips sword
Before Akano could draw his blade, Augustine appeared in front of him holding a device in his hands.
Augustine: So this was the reason why I couldn’t teleport. slashing the black, rune carved tablet into bits
Akano: …feeling panic wash over him
Augustine: Just…do something for me alright?
Akano: looks on with confusion
Augustine: Just…try to be a better person after you get out.
Before Akano could question what he meant by “get out” Augustine pressed his finger onto Akano’s forehead and at that moment, Akano felt something he hadn’t felt in a long time: relief, like all the burdens of working for the grand Templar suddenly couldn’t touch him anymore. Still in this feeling, Augustine focused his energy into Akano, teleporting him away. Akano awoke on a strange beach, confused.
Akano: gah…what…happened? What did he even do? That sensation, it felt…good. Now where am I-
Basitin: HALT!
Akano: ah!
Basitin 1: How did you get on our island stranger?
Basitin 2: take him to the king, he’ll know what to do.
Akano: Basitin…KING?!
~~~~~
Augustine: sigh of relief with his wounds almost done regenerating That was scary, I’ve never been in a real fight before, he was stronger than I thought he’d be. turns to Zach and Elock you guys alright?
Z: Augustine…That was…
A: what? Why are you looking at me like tha-
Elock: INCREDIBLE! pounces on him the way you effortlessly dodged almost all of his attacks was so cool! And the way you took him down was just like in the fantasy books!
Z: Elock let go! You’re gonna squeeze him to death!
Elock: oh! Sorry!
A: It's alright, though maybe I should stop performing those feats in front of you then.
Z: So Augustine, where should we head now? A clearing with torn up trees isn’t exactly what I call subtle.
A: They’re gonna come looking for him by following his amulet’s energy signal. Disposing of it is what we should do, but there are some properties of it that I wanna explore so… grabs his sword and smashes the gem, taking a small chunk to observe at the cabin
A: alright let’s get this out of here. focusing his energy onto the amulet, he teleported it away to a place that no one would find it. No one at all. No sir
Smol basitin child: Hey! What’s this shiny red rock?
Another child: don’t know.
Smol basitin: whoa! It shoots fire, and the warmth feels so nice and…intoxicating…
A: They still might find this carnage though, heading back for the day I think is the better idea.
Z: well if you say so then.
A: Luckily with that device destroyed, I can teleport again.
Elock: let’s get out of here then!
A: very well. teleports
later that night
Z: Augustine you doing alright?
A: yes I’m fine, tomorrow it’ll look like these injuries were never there.
Z: No I was talking about your feelings, I thought you’d be demoralized after that attack.
A: quite the opposite actually, it felt good letting some of my feelings out in that battle.
Z: I see. I was expecting you to actually kill him, but was surprised when you just broke his necklace.
A: Guess the memory 2 guards I slayed in the facility during the escape still burned a bit.
Z: I understand.
Augustine’s thoughts: goes back to a conversation he had with Elock years ago
~~~~~~
Young Elock: Augustine, how do you define a hero?
Young Augustine: hm?
Young Elock: I read a lot of fantasy and mythology books about epic battles and legendary heroes, what’s a hero to you?
Young Augustine: That's a pretty subjective question but I don’t think I’m the right person to answer that. I’ve always defined heroes as people who can take the villain down and nothing more.
Young Elock: I guess you can say that.
Young Augustine: So how do you define a hero Elock? Might as well get a second opinion.
Young Elock: Oh! Um! I’ve always believed that heroes are people who can both save the day, and send the villains down the brighter path. Not through power but through words, not simply killing them.
Young Augustine: Huh…that’s a new concept, pretty cool. I’ll give it some thought.
Young Elock: Thanks!
~~~~~~
“Am I really a hero doing this?”
Elock: Augustine. You ok? You look lost.
A: snaps back huh? Oh right, sorry I was daydreaming.
Elock: disappointed that the plan failed?
A: I- yeah I suppose so.
“Well perhaps I can help with that”
A: Who said that?!
Z: Elock was that you?
Elock: I didn’t say that.
“It was me!”
Everyone looks around the cabin to see who’s talking.
“Oh my masks…HEY! IDIOTS! DOWN HERE!”
Everyone looks down to see…a white cat?
Z: a cat?
Elock: awwww! It’s so cute!
A: Oh it's you again. Hey there.
Z: Wait Augustine was this the weird cat I saw in the forest a while back?!
“Have some respect, Doctor! I’ll have you know that I have the ability to take your insides to the outside!”
Z: Who the hell are you anyways? And what are you doing here?! And how are you creepily talking inside my head?!
“Well if you insist”
“My name is Nora, or Lady Nora”
Z: shudders L- Lady Nora?! PLEASE FORGIVE MY RUDENESS!
Nora: oh please, get up from the floor already! Do you seriously deal with this guy everyday?
A: Normally he’s calm and collected. Guess in the presence of superiority he’s pretty shy.
Nora: typical humans.
Elock: Excuse me, lady Nora! But what are you doing here? Don’t you have more important business to take care of?
Nora: Dragon duties get pre-tty boring after a while, so I’m always looking for new stuff to do.
Elock: but that only answers one question! What are you doing here?
Nora: to help…duh.
Elock: really?
A: huh?
Z: what?
Nora: Yeah, I’m here to help. What?
Z: Is this a trick?! Are you waiting for us to reveal our plans to you just for you to tell the grand Templar?!
Nora: Are you deaf? I JUST SAID I'M HELPING YOU! And besides! I already know about your plan! Jeez your mind is easy to peek into!
A: Why are you helping though? Surely there are more interesting things you could be doing…not that we’re turning down your offer though.
Nora: Why does anyone do anything? When you get to my age everything’s pretty boring.
A: yeah…don’t think we’ll be getting there anytime soon. But how do you plan on helping? I mean I get how much power you hold but what can you do to benefit us?
Nora: You'll know it when the time comes. I’ll need a few days…and also! manifests a key out of nowhere for your buddy’s collar over there.
A: Oh! Thank you! Elock! You’re free now!
Elock: picks up Nora and presses her against her face Thank youuuuuuuu!
Nora: ACK! Get off me! I know you’re happy but limit the physical touch!
A: how’d you even get the key anyways? I thought that the shopkeeper held the sole copy!
Nora: oh! It was simple really, just made him a deal where for the key I show him uhh ahem a “pleasurable” fantasy if you know what I mean.
A: oh…OH…
Nora: right…anyways. I’ll be ready when you guys need me. Once you get your crap together I’ll be ready.
Z: very well then.
June 20th, 327
~~~~~
Zach wakes up to see Augustine sitting at his desk, tinkering with the red crystal sample seemingly puzzled and intrigued at once. Elock is still asleep on the bed as Augustine let her have it.
Z: what’cha doing there?
A: oh! Hey Zach! I’m just testing this sample I got from Akano’s amulet and it’s pretty interesting. First off, the size of the crystal never seems to shift no matter how much I use it, with me charging energy into one of our slabs of steak and the crystal never changes size at all! What I’m more curious about is the steak. I used my sword to cut it and to my amazement it started healing the cut right before my eyes, so in essence I imbued that piece of meat with my regenerative properties! Unfortunately it didn’t last long as the high amount of energy destroyed the steak’s cells and quite literally liquifying it!
Z: interesting…
A: But that does raise some red flags unfortunately…
Z: why’s tha- oh…you don’t mean…
A: yeah…that means that one day…I might befall the same fate. But when? I don’t know. And I don’t wanna think about it.
~~~~~~~~~
To be continued…
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2023.06.09 23:45 FightingUrukHai North and South
Aluwa society, at its heart, was born out of the trade between the people of the coast and the people of the river. It is no surprise, then, that the ani’Aluwa are a mercantile people, with goods being traded between villages and beyond their cultural borders, to neighboring peoples of the western prairies and eastern forests. On short trips, they would trade masa and cassava flour, beans and squash, nuts and fruits, and all kinds of smoked fish and shellfish. These perishable foods would not last on longer journeys, though, so for foreign trade they instead bartered with intricately carved harpoons, mother-of-pearl jewelry, elderberry wine, buckskin, and Aluwa oranges.
The furthest overland journey Aluwa traders dared was to the north: up the Plombalo, through a valley in the low mountain range that separates Gorgonea from Tritonea, then downhill through the unfamiliar northern woodland, following the many rivers of that country down to the lakes of Zonowodjon, which the ani’Aluwa called Zonowóyon. Gradually, Aluwa trade began to stretch even further, cutting northwest to the land of Arhada, which the ani’Aluwa called Lahada. There was no organized trade route between Aluwa and these northern civilizations, but people in search of wealth would travel from one to the other year after year. The most profitable trade tended to be in seashells and corals, which were easy to obtain in Aluwa but exotic luxuries in inland Tritonea.
Most of Aluwa’s trade, however, was not overland, but on the Sea of Itiah (or Iteha in the gla’Aluwa tongue). Merchants would load baskets and wineskins full of goods onto their plank boats and circle the sea, trading with every village they came across, aided by their knowledge of celestial navigation. At the other end of the sea lay the rich and populous lands of Sasnak and Sasnak-ra, which the ani’Aluwa called Zandaka and Zandakla. Although the Sasnak were much farther away than the Zonowodjon, the ease of ship travel meant that the journey south took less time than the journey north. Here, as in the north, the Aluwa found the most profit in trading away goods common in Aluwa but unheard of in the south – in this case, antlers, deerskin, and aromatic cedar.
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2023.06.09 23:45 next3days Weekend Rundown of Events for those in/near Blacksburg (June 9th - June 11th)
Here's this weekend's rundown of fun events you can enjoy in Blacksburg and throughout the surrounding areas within the New River Valley. There's quite a few annual events occurring this weekend such as the Pearisburg Festival in the Park and Claytor Lake Festival if you have a caride and feel adventurous.
Weekend Rundown for June 9th - June 11th: 1. A Night To Fight Alzheimer’s with Boxing Sparring Sessions Blacksburg Boxing and Fitness, Blacksburg Friday, June 9, 2023, 6:00 - 8:00 PM Advance Tickets: $15.00, At the Door: $20.00 Enjoy live, local boxing with sparring sessions with 100% of the proceeds benefitting The Alzheimer’s Association and The Longest Day to raise money for Alzheimer's research. Please note: These are not sanctioned fights. Instead, they are USA Boxing approved Sparring sessions lead by USA Boxing Certified Coaches, amongst USA Boxing athletes, using USA Boxing Sparring rules. The intent is to put on a show, raise money for a great cause, and keep all participants safe. There will also be raffle tickets to win sweet prizes from local companies.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708170 2. 2023 Relay for Life Annual Event (Montgomery County, VA) Christiansburg Middle School, Christiansburg Friday, June 9, 2023, 6:00 - 11:00 PM Admission: Free Join Relay for Life of Montgomery County for their annual Relay for Life event. Celebrate survivors, remember those we have lost and fight back as a community to give cancer the boot. Enjoy live entertainment, children's fun, food, arts & crafts and small business vendors, silent auction, 50/50 Raffle and more. The event is free to attend, but please plan to bring payment for any food and vendors you wish to purchase from.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707517 3. 2023 Pearisburg Festival in the Park Pearisburg Community & Recreation Center, Pearisburg Friday, June 9, 2023, 6:00 - 11:00 PM and Saturday, June 10, 2023, 9:30 AM - 11:00 PM Admission: Free The Pearisburg Festival in the Park celebrates its 38th anniversary in Giles County, Virginia. Enjoy carnival rides, two days of live entertainment, food vendors with all your favorite festival foods, special activities, vendors and crafters. Festival in the Park promises to be an awesome two days of community spirit, family fun, live music, and great food. There will be rides and games for the whole family. Friday is Unlimited Wristband night and Saturday features a full day of entertainment, the Cancer Kids and Christmas Car Show & Cruise along with headliner Chris Higbee and closing with a fireworks display.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/VenueEventListing.cfm?V=542 4. Root Down in Concert Rising Silo Farm Brewery, Blacksburg Friday, June 9, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Root Down is a jazz trio based in the New River Valley area featuring musicians Justin Craig, Doug Norton and Nick Romantini.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708744 5. MLB / USA Baseball: Danville Otterbots vs. Pulaski River Turtles (Star Wars Night and Fireworks) Calfee Park, Pulaski Friday, June 9, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM General Admission: $5.00, Seniors Ages 65 & Older: $1.00, Kids 6 & Under: Free Grandstand: $11.00, Reserved Seating: $12.00, Party Zone: $12.00, Club Seating: $15.00 The Pulaski River Turtles MLB / USA Baseball's Appalachian League team hosts the Danville Otterbots as they continue their 2023 season with Star Wars Night. Several characters will be on-site throughout the game to interact with fans and take photos. In addition, every Friday night game will end with a fireworks show for the fans. Tickets can be purchased at the gates on game day or online.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708693 6. Ripejive in Concert Dogtown Roadhouse, Floyd Friday, June 9, 2023, 8:00 - 11:00 PM Admission: $8.00 Ripejive is a Blacksburg, Virginia based quartet that delivers original, hard-hitting funk. From retro grooves to jazz fusion, blazing guitar and soaring saxophone color tight pocket rhythms with sounds from New Orleans to New York that always bring a party.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708066 7. Summer Tea In Honor of Lucy Lancaster's Birthday (Reservation Deadline) Lancaster House, Blacksburg Saturday, June 17, 2023, 11:00 AM and 12:30 PM Registration Deadline: Saturday, June 10, 2023 Admission: $25.00 The YMCA at Virginia Tech presents their 1st Annual Summer Tea in Honor of Lucy Lancaster's Birthday with two seatings on 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM with a reservation deadline of Saturday, June 10, 2023. Located in the beautiful, historic Lancaster House, mark Lucy Lee Lancaster’s birthday by enjoying a deliciously decadent celebration featuring tea and delicious homemade delicacies. The Tea will be catered by Carolyn Ansley, famous for her authentic and delicious teas in past years in Blacksburg. Proceeds from the Tea will directly benefit the Y Community Programs such as Meals On Main, International Programming and After School care. Deadline to purchase tickets is Saturday, June 10th. Lucy Lee lived in the Lancaster House built in 1913 by her parents William and Lucy Lee Sibold Lancaster until her death in 1989. She left the house to the YMCA at Virginia Tech. Lee was one of the first five women admitted to Virginia Tech in 1925. She majored in biology and worked in the library which was housed at that time in what had been the campus chapel. Her work in the library led to her decision to become a librarian, and she attended Columbia University Library School where she received her Masters of Library Science degree. She returned to Blacksburg and worked in the university library until her retirement in 1970.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708759 8. 2023 Native Plant Sale Price House Nature Center, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 9:30 AM - 1:30 PM Admission: Free The New River Valley Chapter of the Virginia Native Plant Society will hold its Fifth Annual Native Plant Sale. The Native Plant Sale includes perennials, trees, shrubs, ferns and more. All plants in the sale are native to Virginia and do not include cultivars. Most are pollinator friendly. The native plant sale only uses sustainable non-peat potting mix. All proceeds from the sale go to support the activities of the New River Valley Chapter, including public education and outreach, improving habitat at local parks, removing invasive species and awarding grants to area youth for native plant garden projects. In addition to the many plants for sale, there will be activities for adults and children. There will be booths where you can ask how to create a pollinator garden or which plants are exotic invasives which kill off natives which the wildlife need to survive on. Tree tubes to protect trees and shrubs from deer will also be sold. Storytime with Joelle for children begins at 12:30 PM. You can also visit the Price House Nature Center which will be open from 9:00 AM - 1:00 PM. Parking is one block away in the Blacksburg United Methodist Church.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708676 9. 2023 Claytor Lake Festival Claytor Lake State Park, Dublin Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:00 AM - 10:00 PM Parking is $20.00 per vehicle or $15.00 with five cans of food. The Claytor Lake Festival Committee presents the 24th Annual Claytor Lake Beach Festival. The festival kicks off the summer season at Claytor Lake State Park each year. Enjoy entertainment all day, fireworks at night, arts & crafts vendors, beach access included with admission, free children's activities, youth & adult fishing tournament, wine tasting and lots more. Registration for the annual Everett Lee Yearout, Jr. Adult and Youth Fishing Tournament will be held 7:00-10:00 AM. This year the tournament theme is "Fishing is the Best Hobby Because". The Car Show voting is done by the show participants who are completely registered by 10:30 AM. All entries will receive a dash plaque, goodie bag and category winners will receive trophies. There is no pre-registration fee. The fee is $20.00 to enter the car & motorcycle show and this is the only fee you pay to enter the festival. Swimming is included with admission. The event is rain or shine.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708202 10. Procession of Appalachian Species (Giant Puppet Parade) and Biodiversity Fair Warren G. Lineberry Memorial Park, Floyd Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:00 AM - 2:00 PM Admission: Free Springhouse presents the Procession of Appalachian Species and Biodiversity Fair with events centered around Warren G. Lineberry Memorial Park. New River Valley residents are invited to participate in a giant puppet parade celebrating our region’s biodiversity. This event, dubbed, "The Procession of Appalachian Species," will start and end at Lineberry Park in downtown Floyd, VA. Participants are encouraged to bring homemade puppets and costumes that represent one of our region’s many spectacular species. Musicians and dancers are also encouraged to bring their crafts to this event. The parade starts at 11:00 AM. If you don't have a homemade puppet or costume please come and you can puppeteer one that we have made. After the parade, join the Biodiversity Fair featuring food, music and activities from 12:00-2:00 PM.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708682 11. June 2023 Used Book Sale Montgomery Museum of Art & History, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:00 AM - 4:00 PM Friday, June 9, 2023, 2:00 - 7:00 PM and Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:00 AM - 4:00 PM Mass-Market Paperback Books: $0.50, Large-Format Paperbacks: $1.00, Hardback Books: $1.50, Children’s Books: $0.50-$1.00 The Montgomery Museum of Art and History will be holding a two-day Used Book Sale featuring thousands of books including children’s books, adult fiction, and non-fiction. Genres include mystery, romance, science fiction, cooking, history, crafts, religion, self-help, and much, much more. The book sale will also feature puzzles, magazines, comic books, audiobooks, CDs, and DVDs.. On Saturday, June 10th from 1:00-4:00 PM, bring your own bag for a bag sale. All books that can fit will be offered at a total of $10.00 per bag. Brown paper bags and tote bags are perfect for the bag sale. Please, no plastic trash bags. Proceeds will be used to help the museum in areas such as educational programming, collection care, and exhibit preparation.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708149 12. 2023 Two-Day Floyd Artisan Trail Annual Tour Downtown Floyd, Floyd Saturday, June 10, 2023 and Sunday, June 11, 2023, 10:00 AM - 5:00 PM Admission: Free The Floyd Center for the Arts hosts the 11th annual two-day Floyd Artisan Trail. Floyd County artisans, farms, galleries, and more will open their doors for this year’s Artisan Trail. Featuring over 30 different individuals and businesses, the Artisan Trail is a years-long tradition in Floyd to celebrate the abundant artistry available in this area. The Artisan Trail is a free to attend and invites locals and tourists alike to travel around the county to visit the open studios, see live demos, and purchase one-of-a-kind handmade art and goods in a self-guided tour across Floyd County, Virginia. The Trail happily hosts local farms and farm markets, offering tours and locally grown produce and farm goods. There may even be adorable farm animals to see. Maps and brochures with all participants’ information are available online and will be available at the Floyd Center for the Arts.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708882 13. Balance and Brews Iron Tree Brewing Company, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:45 - 11:45 AM Admission: $20.00 Move through foundational yoga poses, gentle stretches, and experience the many restorative benefits that yoga has to offer. This one hour class is appropriate for all levels, including those who are totally new to yoga. The cost includes an Iron Tree beverage of your choice. No reservation required, just show up.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708760 14. Author Talk with Penny Blue Christiansburg Library, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM Admission: Free Christiansburg Library presents an Author Talk with Penny Blue about her first book "A Time to Protest: Leadership Lessons from My Father Who Survived the Segregated South for 99 Years". Historians have written about famous names in Black History, such as: Martin Luther King, Jr., Madam CJ Walker and Booker T. Washington. Penny Blue’s dad, Charles Edwards, Sr., is not famous, but the way he lived his life made an impact on his 10 children and the community in which he lived. The stories he told his children and grandchildren are the inspiration for Blue’s book. Penny says the main theme is standing up and speaking out for what is just and right. Books will be available for purchase for $25.00 through CashApp or with cash or check only.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708891 15. Sugar Magnolia 5th Anniversary Celebration Sugar Magnolia, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 11:00 AM - 10:00 PM 25% Off Storewide, $2.00 Ice Cream Scoops Sugar Magnolia presents their 5th Anniversary Celebration at their original location in Blacksburg, VA. There will be face painting and a balloon artist in store from 12:00-2:00 PM. Guests can also enjoy: 25% off storewide all day, $2.00 ice cream scoops all day, tasting stations, raffles, gifts with purchase and more.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708741 16. Fourth Birthday Party Celebration with Music from Cinémathèque Eastern Divide Brewing, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 12:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Eastern Divide Brewing presents their Fourth Birthday Party Celebration with Music from Cinémathèque. Enjoy free ice cream and live music from 5:00-8:00 PM featuring the upbeat and unique rhythms of Cinematheque including surf rock, exotica, spaghetti westerns, Ethiopian jazz, and Afro-Beat. Eastern Divide will also have a vintage and artisan pop up market featuring Eden's Emporium, Broken Arrow Creations, Madigan Made and Tees Don't Grow on Trees.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708886 17. Music at the Villa with Parker's Pillbox Villa Appalaccia Winery, Floyd Saturday, June 10, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Relax and enjoy some great music along with great wine and food. Sprung from the western hills of Virginia, Parker's Pillbox is an on-the-rise power trio to watch. Parker's Pillbox is instantly recognizable by their unique, cohesive sound, which manages to be unto itself while drawing influences from a multitude of genres. Flavors of country, jazz, grunge, and good 'ol southern rock and roll blend together to create music which is truly an experience.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708181 18. Saturday Afternoon Music with Ball & Chain New River Vineyard & Winery, Fairlawn Saturday, June 10, 2023, 2:00 - 5:00 PM Admission: Free Join New River Vineyard & Winery on the patio for an afternoon enjoying their wine, frozen wine slushies, handcrafted beer and music from Ball & Chain. Ball & Chain is a stripped down acoustic rock duo. A girl from the mountains of Virginia and a boy from the Bronx. The regional musical influences of each coalesce into melodious tension. Passion, fun and sass pervades Jon & Lucinda’s blend of rock, R&B, and blues, resulting in vocals and harmonies that stroke your soul. Seating is first come, first served. Guests can bring a blanket and chair.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708884 19. Arc in the Park 2023 Nellie's Cave Park, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 3:00 - 6:00 PM Admission: Free Enjoy the free food including an all-you-can-eat hot dog bar and pulled pork barbecue, outdoor field games, face painting, entertainment, snow cones and friendships. The Gift Card Raffle will help raise funds for the organization. Prizes include gift cards from Avellinos, PKs, The Maroon Door, Zeppoli’s, In Balance Yoga, The Cellar, The Lyric and lots more. Tickets are $5.00 each and can be purchased online or in person at the event. The prize drawing will be held at the event at 5:00 PM. Participants do not have to be there in person to win. The event is handicap accessible. The Arc promotes and protects the human rights of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities and actively supports their full inclusion and participation in the community throughout their lifetimes.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708881 20. Rockin' Main Street Concert Series with Travis Reigh and The Jared Stout Band Downtown Christiansburg, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 5:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free The Town of Christiansburg and the Christiansburg Parks & Rec continues their Rockin' Main Street Concert Series featuring music from The Jared Stout Band and Travis Reigh. Attendees can purchase food and drinks from a selection of food trucks and wine and beer vendors. Patrons are encouraged to bring lawn chairs to sit and enjoy the live performances. Travis Reigh is a singer-songwriter born and raised out of Southwest Virginia, bringing you original material with rock roots and a country sound that you don't want to miss. Get ready to experience the high-octane energy and soulful sound of the Jared Stout Band! This alt-country powerhouse hails from Southwestern Virginia and is known for their unique blend of Appalachian rhythm and blues. As runners-up for the "On-The-Rise" award at FloydFest 22, the Jared Stout Band delivers an unforgettable performance by bringing their own energetic and soulful original songs to the stage.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707447 21. Mount Tabor Ruritan Club June Fish Fry with The Blacksburg Community Band Slusser's Chapel Church of God, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 5:00 - 7:00 PM Adults: $12.00 Children Ages 3-11: $6.00 Children Under 3: Free Carry-Outs: $12.00 The Mount Tabor Ruritan Club presents their June Fish Fry with the Blacksburg Community Band performing. Enjoy a serving fish, fries, slaw, homemade desserts and beverage. The Blacksburg Community Band, Inc. is an all-volunteer community organization formed in 1989 under the auspices of the Department of Parks and Recreation in the Town of Blacksburg, Virginia. This is a fundraiser for the Ruritan Club's community service projects and scholarships. Held rain or shine under the picnic shelter below the lower church parking lot.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708078 22. 2023 Music on the Lawn Concert Series with Virginia Hollow Christiansburg Library, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 6:00 - 7:30 PM Admission: Free Virginia Hollow is a mixture of Americana, Bluegrass, Country, Indie, and Rock. A singer-songwriter band that performs songs written by lead singer Carrie Hinkley, along with an occasional handpicked cover or two. Virginia Hollow is a band and a sound born from the hills, valleys and mountains of Appalachia. Their performances and music take you on a journey fraught with raw emotions and stories of love, trust, betrayal and longing. Each month, one talented local band will play a concert on the library's lawn after hours. Bring your lawn chairs and blankets for an evening under the stars. Feel free to bring a picnic as well. This concert is rain or shine. In case of rain, the concert will be moved inside.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707890 23. Slushie Saturday with Music from Furious Jones Moon Hollow Brewing, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Moon Hollow Brewing presents their first Slushie Saturday with Music from Furious Jones. This Summer every Saturday is now Slushie Saturday at Moon Hollow. This Saturday will have two slushies available one made with Ebb & Flow Prickly Pear and one non-alcoholic slushie, Prickly Pear Raspberry flavored. Singer and songwriter Furious Jones will perform a live acoustic solo show featuring Americana, Blues, Folk, and Rock with both originals and extensive covers.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708719 24. Mist on the Mountain in Concert Rising Silo Farm Brewery, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Mist on the Mountain is an Irish Traditional Music group based in the New River Valley of southwest Virginia. From lively jigs and reels to heartbreaking laments and rollicking ballads.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708745 25. Dean Trimble in Concert Long Way Brewing, Radford Saturday, June 10, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Dean Trimble is a musician playing 70s and 80s classic soft rock and classic country and he is based in the New River Valley.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708860 26. Cary Wimbish Band in Concert Brick House Pizza, Radford Saturday, June 10, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM Admission: Free The Cary Wimbish Band makes its debut performance at Brick House Pizza. Hailing from Richmond, Virginia, Cary Wimbish has quickly earned a loyal following in the Richmond area since his debut in 2018. Combining powerful vocals with both acoustic and electric guitar, Cary’s repertoire includes covers of well known traditional country, bluegrass, classic rock and blues songs.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708866 27. June Blacksburg Vintage Market Market Square Park, Blacksburg Sunday, June 11, 2023, 10:00 AM - 5:00 PM Admission: Free The Blacksburg Vintage Market hosts their June Vintage Market. Vendors will be selling all things vintage from clothes, jewelry, vinyl records, and more.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708681 28. Sunday Mountain Music Series with Indian Run Stringband Mountain Lake Lodge, Pembroke Sunday, June 11, 2023, 4:00 - 6:00 PM Admission: Free The Indian Run Stringband plays fiddle and banjo foot stomping dance tunes and sings traditional songs with old time harmonies perfect for dancing the two step. From dance tunes to the blues, the Indian Run Stringband plays with love and abandon. They make old-time music fresh and new. Stop by Salt Pond Pub every Sunday starting Memorial Day weekend through August for live music and delicious food & drinks. Perfect for relaxing with the whole family (furry friends welcome too).
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708136 29. Gearheads For A Cause for Ashley Ray Blue Ridge Church, Christiansburg Sunday, June 11, 2023, 5:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Gearheads For A Cause is hosting a special cruise in in memory of Ashley Ray of Dublin, VA that was took from this world at the young age of 25. Ashley was a amazing mother of two sons and always happy and outgoing. The money raised will be for Ashley's family to help with her two boys and the family's needs. Vehicles of all type are invited to attend as well as spectators. Admission and entry are free. There will be a raffle, cake walk and vendors on site. Gearheads For a Cause hosts car shows to help raise spirits given all our community has undergone and bring together an otherwise separated community.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708892 30. Freddy Modad in Concert Palisades Restaurant, Eggleston Sunday, June 11, 2023, 5:00 - 7:30 PM Admission: Free Guitarist Freddie Modad performs classic rock and more. Reservations are not required, but recommended for dining area seating.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708893 31. MLB / USA Baseball: Burlington Sock Puppets vs. Pulaski River Turtles (Saddle-Up Sunday) Calfee Park, Pulaski Sunday, June 11, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM General Admission: $5.00, Seniors Ages 65 & Older: $1.00, Kids 6 & Under: Free Grandstand: $11.00, Reserved Seating: $12.00, Party Zone: $12.00, Club Seating: $15.00 The Pulaski River Turtles MLB / USA Baseball's Appalachian League team hosts the Burlington Sock Puppets as they continue their 2023 season. Saddle-Up Sunday returns. Arrive early for free cowboy hat giveaways while supplies last and take a ride on the buckin’ mechanical bull. Rides are free of charge. It's also Sunday Savings featuring concession specials. Tickets can be purchased online or at the gate.
Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708695 Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!
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VirginiaTech [link] [comments]
2023.06.09 23:42 DaddyDersch All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap
| So I want to first start this off by clearing a few things up… Wednesday I made a post looking for $400 basically by middle of July… then what happened over night? Well yesterday markets called for a pump so I had to be bullish for today… there is a very different time frame to have on some of these posts… that $400 target is a 30-45dte target… however, I still have overnight and intraweek moves that may inverse that… This market is ruthless and can not make its mind up for more than a minute sometimes… With that being said I am bearish for Monday… based on todays technicals… we will get to that but lets talk about CPI and FOMC first… EVENT CALENDER https://preview.redd.it/h2j8ct01b25b1.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c88129a853071180476451ebdba535d96ad0abd CPI/ FOMC https://preview.redd.it/epnnu9i1b25b1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=363ef59544492ab0f570b355ad1f14796c72491b I am waiting on bloomberg terminal numbers right now… hoping to get them this weekend (if anyone has access DM me… if not I gotta wait on one of my other sources)… but the way im seeing it right now is that cleveland fed nowcast and consensus are all pretty much spot on… the biggest thing to note here is that CPI is calling for a print in the 4s… we even if all goes well could see a print in the 3s! that would be wild to be honest… also note for next month nowcast is already calling for a 3.3% CPI print! So the question is how do we trade this and what is the market going to do? Well I would NOT trade this at all… why? Simple… its been months since we have had a decent reaction that would make the risk to reward of the payout worth it… Now how will the market react? https://preview.redd.it/ukw2n8x1b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbec2abd702de7190336c1fcd7f5ce99995434e0 As you can see here the last month things have been very up and down… but as of current time of writing this… the markets see the highest odds of a PAUSE at this meeting next week… now this is where I still think the markets have it wrong… there has been ZERO indication for JPOW about a pause… pretty much every time JPOW himself has actually spoken he has ALWAYS said he is going to do a 25bps hike and that there is NO RATE CUTS this year… now this is really where I think markets have it all wrong… The markets were pricing in 75bps of cuts by EOY… Impressively… the markets now have the highest odds of NO RATE CUTS by end of year.. I do think the markets finally have this correct… however, while the odds may be correct now…. I do not see the markets reacting correctly… I do think if JPOW hikes 25bps on Wednesday (which is highly probable in my opinion) that we will see a negative reaction to that… but I do see that as a likely call entry opportunity whenever that sell off stops… SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/eq39fsf2b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=8db68d3693dde741680ca86cfb08e1fb41ef3ce1 Well after putting that 426.6 demand in we have now immediately turned around and put a new supply in at 429.13… however, do you see the issue with it? We are imbalanced.. why? Simply because today we are going to close higher than where the supply is put in… that means markets will need to come back down OR immediately turn around and make a new demand Monday… One interesting thing is that since pretty much April 26th SPY has not broken through a previous demand after establishing a supply… what do I mean… I mean lets take that 410.2 demand… after markets put that in and put in a new supply (was around 420) the markets held that 420.1 demand and did not close below it… we have been stair stacking (bullishly) new demands since 404 area. However with 3 supplies here at this 428-430 area now this has become one extremely strong resistance… SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/6tg0dd43b25b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=169aac84ff1ca9949b436c88028dc45ef5ccf1c1 There is actually no changes to the weekly time frame here… we closed over previous supply and did not put in a new supply… DMI remains overbought and SPY remains ready to put in a new supply on any red week… SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/p62k1wl3b25b1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=d26669c8f512d99cf9a548fbfafc27818a754fe5 SPY daily here remains in this black bull channel that it has been in since May 23rd… we also have the bigger broad red/blue bull channel since March 8th… Now this is a CLASSIC bearish reversal pattern with this evening doji star closure… we also once again failed to close over 430.. We did close higher than the august 16th closure but we did not close over 430 yet again… this would be 4 failed rejections in the last 5 trading days from closing over 430. I would not be surprised to see price come back down to 426.5 demand (support) or perhaps 428 supply on Monday… however, I do forsee it still being bullish… honestly until this black bull channel is broken and really until we close under the daily 20ema this remains bullish and dips remain call opportunities… SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/r3p5obe4b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8e465acd110eabd4cb74d244142f9a6c1616385 I think this weekly chart clearly shows the overall trend and shows everything the best… Here you can see since the beginning of march we have been in this blue bull channel. Until SPY breaks under that weekly support (419 for next week) as you can see by the wicks this remains a buy the dip market… we also have a large red/ blue rising wedge that we have been trading within since middle of September… that resistance sits at 436.1 for next week. SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 -> 381.74 Support- 428.2 -> 422.1 -> 418.6 Resistance- 430 -> 436.9 -> 444.3 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/dipki9w4b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=0683dd8fe15b3a5c26c7d4af16187b935e653850 Not surprisingly here futures followed suit of SPY and also put in a new supply at 4298. We actually are imbalanced on futures which does not usually happen. So that will be interesting to watch get sorted out over next week.. as of right now futes minimally needs to close under 4299 in order to be balanced. 4312 is the supply and resistance from the august high and we once again failed to close over that level… it is safe to assume for now 4312 is strong resistance. FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/68hwi3g5b25b1.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&s=d76cd94049299ac20a595cb65b68df41acca2d62 No changes to futures weekly supply and demand… we are attempting to make 4284 into a support, however, it is not set up to turn it into a demand which would be incredible bullish. NOTE ON FUTURES- on tradingview (where I primarily chart) the contracts rolled over night and when that happens the charting is always messed up for about a week because there was about a 100pt gap up due to that… there is a way to adjust for contracts but none of my levels are adjusted for that so it would throw everything off… for now I wont be including Futes daily or weekly price action until things normalize some… I will not include support/ resistance either as it is incorrect. FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS- Supply weekly- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Supply daily- 4240 -> 4292 -> 4298 -> 4312 Demand weekly- 4130 -> 3921 Demand daily- 4273 -> 4188 QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/sjlguh16b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b233a830548e89abd8036fe6bf877e137426937 Now I said yesterday I was VERY bullish on QQQ and that I was looking for 358-361… we ended up coming super close at open with hitting 357.66 but we did come up and retest that 357.09 supply and once again failed to break through and close over that level… we actually have really turned 354.95 supply into a major resistance here with this being the 5th rejection in 6 days at this level… Now we did put in a new demand at 349.06 today… however, I will say I am VERY bearish on QQQ for Monday… I would not be surprised at all to see QQQ come back down to at least 351 on Monday… If you look at QQQ objectively since 5/26 it has been holding within a 347.93 to 357.09 range for 10 closes in a row now… this right now is our consolidation period/ range… QQQ likely could drop down to 350-351 Monday and could possibly put in a new supply at 354.5 area.. if it did that then we absolutely would look for 348-349 to bounce us and look to long it back to 357. However, IF we can retrace to 349-351 and not put in a new supply I would actually be even more bullish and would look for 361.7 demand to be taken out next week. Now daily DMI is waving up which is bullish and we did hold the daily 8ema today… however, that massive evening doji star bearish reversal candle certainly should result in a drop… daily also broke extreme bull momentum… QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/knxrjnq7b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c72f8bb4736e6e6aaf6eb7859f7b294094ed6e9 Now on QQQ weekly here this is looking far more bearish… we just put in a double top with back to back dojis with a weekly supply at 354.65. This is our first supply since the first week of May. Now only that but we also have a weekly DMI wave down forming here on QQQ. I will say though that despite this bearish set up that we have here… QQQ weekly remains in extreme bull momentum (despite the daily losing it) which means the weekly 8ema likely will be support on any retrace… that weekly 8ema should sit somewhere near 340 next week. Impressively QQQ weekly has NOT broken through the 8ema since the first week of may (5 weeks in a row) and we have not closed under the weekly 8ema since the week of March 6th. As you can see we are working on a yellow rising wedge since the week of December 12th. For me we have that 330.67 supply to keep an eye on next week… However, that would not only break the weekly 8ema but would also break the 6 month long rising wedge support… I do not think QQQ has seen the weakness and top to do that… likely weekly support will sit at 337.7 at the lowest next week but I will look for 339-340 to be a bounce point. On the upside if we immediately bounce higher next week we actually could turn this weekly 354.65 supply immediately into a demand which would be incredibly bullish. Upside resistance of the wedge sits at 359.94 and we have a weekly supply at 361.85 to keep an eye on. QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 354.65 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 316.18 VIX https://preview.redd.it/lxrruca8b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cdb883c72a724b9d035f9b9825f04e850167823 Even though it looked like the VIX would never recover and was just going to keep falling and falling and falling…. We actually did it… we actually put in a new daily demand (support) on the VIX at 13.62! This is our first demand the VIX has put in since May 18th… Fun fact about the VIX and putting in Demands (taking the move from low to high of when VIX puts in a demand till its next supply)… March 6th= VIX +65.6%, SPY -6.5% March 14th= VIX +34.1%, SPY -2.5% March 21st= VIX +16.9%, SPY -2.3% April 4th= VIX +8.1%, SPY -1.42% April 6th= VIX +9%, SPY +0.71% April 18th= VIX +20%, SPY -2.9% May 1st= VIX +37.2%, SPY -3.3% May 11th= VIX +9.6%, SPY -0.6% May 18th= VIX +29.9%, SPY -2.6% This is becoming my new favorite thing to do… What does this show? On average over the last 9 times the VIX has put a new demand (support) in it has bounced 25.6% and SPY has fallen -2.38%. There is one time in April though where SPY did randomly push higher despite the VIX pushing up 9%... But what does this mean? Well this means that if this plays out like normal the VIX will see around $17 and SPY could drop to $421.7 before we put a new supply in on the VIX (I will calculate that out once that happens). Now thre is always the chance with low daily volatility and daily/ weekly extreme bear momentum that we do not do that and immediately turn around and put a new supply in… but I will say since November there has not been a time we have seen with the supply indicator this low that we have immediately turned around a put a new supply in… The highest probability is that we see a bounce here on the VIX and drop on SPY… we also broke the 12 day long bear channel today… the next step is for bears to close VIX over the daily 8ema and this should breakout. Next week with CPI and FOMC truly could be really spicy… WEEKLY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/uw0rcrs8b25b1.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=8aefe1f710dd06c7c3f4258929ba4b9cba7c5561 Well I wasn’t supposed to be trading today… but ended up getting home earlier than expected and was able to get some solid trading in today. Today was a refreshing breath of air after getting absolutely wrecked yesterday… today was perfect trading and felt perfect to trade, however, after about 145 I will say that we once again say internals not matching correctly… Overall I failed to reach my weekly profit goal but on an extremely positive note here I was able to break the curse of Fridays by putting in a green day (even after realizing my tsla loss). This close out as a nice green week and I am not too upset with the results especially after how brutal yesterday was. I have now been green for the last 10 weeks in a row which is one week shorter than my longest weekly streak in 2022! I hope you guys all have a great weekend and I will see you guys next week! submitted by DaddyDersch to Daytrading [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 23:42 50BirdsInATrenchcoat How do I say ‘we’re having these meetings because we need to practice working as a unit’ but like..corporate
There were sweeping changes to our upper management, our leadership team hasn’t worked together before.
I just got a promotion and I’m running my first meeting on Monday. I’m a little nervous and wanna make a good first impression.
EDIT: thanks for the responses! They got the wheels turning again and I’m satisfied. For anyone interested, the meeting objectives I settled on are in the comments lol
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2023.06.09 23:40 DaddyDersch All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap
| So I want to first start this off by clearing a few things up… Wednesday I made a post looking for $400 basically by middle of July… then what happened over night? Well yesterday markets called for a pump so I had to be bullish for today… there is a very different time frame to have on some of these posts… that $400 target is a 30-45dte target… however, I still have overnight and intraweek moves that may inverse that… This market is ruthless and can not make its mind up for more than a minute sometimes… With that being said I am bearish for Monday… based on todays technicals… we will get to that but lets talk about CPI and FOMC first… EVENT CALENDER https://preview.redd.it/vdvc1xsra25b1.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=856d68d20c8024195ae60ded1065d4eb330bc50d CPI/ FOMC https://preview.redd.it/pb5ceqdsa25b1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=65a0d5f3c8f957fc36b9ba995afd4e1d5014f011 I am waiting on bloomberg terminal numbers right now… hoping to get them this weekend (if anyone has access DM me… if not I gotta wait on one of my other sources)… but the way im seeing it right now is that cleveland fed nowcast and consensus are all pretty much spot on… the biggest thing to note here is that CPI is calling for a print in the 4s… we even if all goes well could see a print in the 3s! that would be wild to be honest… also note for next month nowcast is already calling for a 3.3% CPI print! So the question is how do we trade this and what is the market going to do? Well I would NOT trade this at all… why? Simple… its been months since we have had a decent reaction that would make the risk to reward of the payout worth it… Now how will the market react? https://preview.redd.it/yrpc2wqsa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7ace0c7cad3059aaf407f893cf154eed7453e57 As you can see here the last month things have been very up and down… but as of current time of writing this… the markets see the highest odds of a PAUSE at this meeting next week… now this is where I still think the markets have it wrong… there has been ZERO indication for JPOW about a pause… pretty much every time JPOW himself has actually spoken he has ALWAYS said he is going to do a 25bps hike and that there is NO RATE CUTS this year… now this is really where I think markets have it all wrong… The markets were pricing in 75bps of cuts by EOY… Impressively… the markets now have the highest odds of NO RATE CUTS by end of year.. I do think the markets finally have this correct… however, while the odds may be correct now…. I do not see the markets reacting correctly… I do think if JPOW hikes 25bps on Wednesday (which is highly probable in my opinion) that we will see a negative reaction to that… but I do see that as a likely call entry opportunity whenever that sell off stops… SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/mlrqya6ta25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a445f6d02a1ef279bea32f5dd85c06c04a358bf Well after putting that 426.6 demand in we have now immediately turned around and put a new supply in at 429.13… however, do you see the issue with it? We are imbalanced.. why? Simply because today we are going to close higher than where the supply is put in… that means markets will need to come back down OR immediately turn around and make a new demand Monday… One interesting thing is that since pretty much April 26th SPY has not broken through a previous demand after establishing a supply… what do I mean… I mean lets take that 410.2 demand… after markets put that in and put in a new supply (was around 420) the markets held that 420.1 demand and did not close below it… we have been stair stacking (bullishly) new demands since 404 area. However with 3 supplies here at this 428-430 area now this has become one extremely strong resistance… SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/w0h22ylta25b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=328ae274417d5ac3e16365177fb9e9712cae77b8 There is actually no changes to the weekly time frame here… we closed over previous supply and did not put in a new supply… DMI remains overbought and SPY remains ready to put in a new supply on any red week… SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/le6b011ua25b1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd6d6c3daaaa61ceb3925b29efad98934592944b SPY daily here remains in this black bull channel that it has been in since May 23rd… we also have the bigger broad red/blue bull channel since March 8th… Now this is a CLASSIC bearish reversal pattern with this evening doji star closure… we also once again failed to close over 430.. We did close higher than the august 16th closure but we did not close over 430 yet again… this would be 4 failed rejections in the last 5 trading days from closing over 430. I would not be surprised to see price come back down to 426.5 demand (support) or perhaps 428 supply on Monday… however, I do forsee it still being bullish… honestly until this black bull channel is broken and really until we close under the daily 20ema this remains bullish and dips remain call opportunities… SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/8l2cfofua25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c964c3f964cfed75a2628c52e62a6eb262a4d85 I think this weekly chart clearly shows the overall trend and shows everything the best… Here you can see since the beginning of march we have been in this blue bull channel. Until SPY breaks under that weekly support (419 for next week) as you can see by the wicks this remains a buy the dip market… we also have a large red/ blue rising wedge that we have been trading within since middle of September… that resistance sits at 436.1 for next week. SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 -> 381.74 Support- 428.2 -> 422.1 -> 418.6 Resistance- 430 -> 436.9 -> 444.3 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/uxbf4bwua25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffeb1ba116d722e6249efb70eb79a7c2be07a8c8 Not surprisingly here futures followed suit of SPY and also put in a new supply at 4298. We actually are imbalanced on futures which does not usually happen. So that will be interesting to watch get sorted out over next week.. as of right now futes minimally needs to close under 4299 in order to be balanced. 4312 is the supply and resistance from the august high and we once again failed to close over that level… it is safe to assume for now 4312 is strong resistance. FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/bzs6k4eva25b1.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&s=41dd38c5f847267a5a71b3c335710331cfa4c030 No changes to futures weekly supply and demand… we are attempting to make 4284 into a support, however, it is not set up to turn it into a demand which would be incredible bullish. NOTE ON FUTURES- on tradingview (where I primarily chart) the contracts rolled over night and when that happens the charting is always messed up for about a week because there was about a 100pt gap up due to that… there is a way to adjust for contracts but none of my levels are adjusted for that so it would throw everything off… for now I wont be including Futes daily or weekly price action until things normalize some… I will not include support/ resistance either as it is incorrect. FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS- Supply weekly- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Supply daily- 4240 -> 4292 -> 4298 -> 4312 Demand weekly- 4130 -> 3921 Demand daily- 4273 -> 4188 QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/7f36vzwva25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e79268ef4aa2a961783ffdd614855c0d01ec87c7 Now I said yesterday I was VERY bullish on QQQ and that I was looking for 358-361… we ended up coming super close at open with hitting 357.66 but we did come up and retest that 357.09 supply and once again failed to break through and close over that level… we actually have really turned 354.95 supply into a major resistance here with this being the 5th rejection in 6 days at this level… Now we did put in a new demand at 349.06 today… however, I will say I am VERY bearish on QQQ for Monday… I would not be surprised at all to see QQQ come back down to at least 351 on Monday… If you look at QQQ objectively since 5/26 it has been holding within a 347.93 to 357.09 range for 10 closes in a row now… this right now is our consolidation period/ range… QQQ likely could drop down to 350-351 Monday and could possibly put in a new supply at 354.5 area.. if it did that then we absolutely would look for 348-349 to bounce us and look to long it back to 357. However, IF we can retrace to 349-351 and not put in a new supply I would actually be even more bullish and would look for 361.7 demand to be taken out next week. Now daily DMI is waving up which is bullish and we did hold the daily 8ema today… however, that massive evening doji star bearish reversal candle certainly should result in a drop… daily also broke extreme bull momentum… QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/0vub7bdwa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=468c5bed6bc49e77f5eebc021727384b98e5ced4 Now on QQQ weekly here this is looking far more bearish… we just put in a double top with back to back dojis with a weekly supply at 354.65. This is our first supply since the first week of May. Now only that but we also have a weekly DMI wave down forming here on QQQ. I will say though that despite this bearish set up that we have here… QQQ weekly remains in extreme bull momentum (despite the daily losing it) which means the weekly 8ema likely will be support on any retrace… that weekly 8ema should sit somewhere near 340 next week. Impressively QQQ weekly has NOT broken through the 8ema since the first week of may (5 weeks in a row) and we have not closed under the weekly 8ema since the week of March 6th. As you can see we are working on a yellow rising wedge since the week of December 12th. For me we have that 330.67 supply to keep an eye on next week… However, that would not only break the weekly 8ema but would also break the 6 month long rising wedge support… I do not think QQQ has seen the weakness and top to do that… likely weekly support will sit at 337.7 at the lowest next week but I will look for 339-340 to be a bounce point. On the upside if we immediately bounce higher next week we actually could turn this weekly 354.65 supply immediately into a demand which would be incredibly bullish. Upside resistance of the wedge sits at 359.94 and we have a weekly supply at 361.85 to keep an eye on. QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 354.65 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 316.18 VIX https://preview.redd.it/1g1n41wwa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=544aa2aba58196017243902170ee9f97fc4fe80f Even though it looked like the VIX would never recover and was just going to keep falling and falling and falling…. We actually did it… we actually put in a new daily demand (support) on the VIX at 13.62! This is our first demand the VIX has put in since May 18th… Fun fact about the VIX and putting in Demands (taking the move from low to high of when VIX puts in a demand till its next supply)… March 6th= VIX +65.6%, SPY -6.5% March 14th= VIX +34.1%, SPY -2.5% March 21st= VIX +16.9%, SPY -2.3% April 4th= VIX +8.1%, SPY -1.42% April 6th= VIX +9%, SPY +0.71% April 18th= VIX +20%, SPY -2.9% May 1st= VIX +37.2%, SPY -3.3% May 11th= VIX +9.6%, SPY -0.6% May 18th= VIX +29.9%, SPY -2.6% This is becoming my new favorite thing to do… What does this show? On average over the last 9 times the VIX has put a new demand (support) in it has bounced 25.6% and SPY has fallen -2.38%. There is one time in April though where SPY did randomly push higher despite the VIX pushing up 9%... But what does this mean? Well this means that if this plays out like normal the VIX will see around $17 and SPY could drop to $421.7 before we put a new supply in on the VIX (I will calculate that out once that happens). Now thre is always the chance with low daily volatility and daily/ weekly extreme bear momentum that we do not do that and immediately turn around and put a new supply in… but I will say since November there has not been a time we have seen with the supply indicator this low that we have immediately turned around a put a new supply in… The highest probability is that we see a bounce here on the VIX and drop on SPY… we also broke the 12 day long bear channel today… the next step is for bears to close VIX over the daily 8ema and this should breakout. Next week with CPI and FOMC truly could be really spicy… WEEKLY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/lim9sh9ya25b1.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b9623f764a2b1248dd8a16aae5fc1e87e8751ff Well I wasn’t supposed to be trading today… but ended up getting home earlier than expected and was able to get some solid trading in today. Today was a refreshing breath of air after getting absolutely wrecked yesterday… today was perfect trading and felt perfect to trade, however, after about 145 I will say that we once again say internals not matching correctly… Overall I failed to reach my weekly profit goal but on an extremely positive note here I was able to break the curse of Fridays by putting in a green day (even after realizing my tsla loss). This close out as a nice green week and I am not too upset with the results especially after how brutal yesterday was. I have now been green for the last 10 weeks in a row which is one week shorter than my longest weekly streak in 2022! I hope you guys all have a great weekend and I will see you guys next week! submitted by DaddyDersch to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 23:39 DaddyDersch All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap
| So I want to first start this off by clearing a few things up… Wednesday I made a post looking for $400 basically by middle of July… then what happened over night? Well yesterday markets called for a pump so I had to be bullish for today… there is a very different time frame to have on some of these posts… that $400 target is a 30-45dte target… however, I still have overnight and intraweek moves that may inverse that… This market is ruthless and can not make its mind up for more than a minute sometimes… With that being said I am bearish for Monday… based on todays technicals… we will get to that but lets talk about CPI and FOMC first… EVENT CALENDER https://preview.redd.it/ntmsk1cia25b1.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=c37d675d41d991d3551581a606e5ebc2781425c4 CPI/ FOMC https://preview.redd.it/0i4jq0tia25b1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=128e23e3c44da4369c1dcb320d6d80c59ad9691f I am waiting on bloomberg terminal numbers right now… hoping to get them this weekend (if anyone has access DM me… if not I gotta wait on one of my other sources)… but the way im seeing it right now is that cleveland fed nowcast and consensus are all pretty much spot on… the biggest thing to note here is that CPI is calling for a print in the 4s… we even if all goes well could see a print in the 3s! that would be wild to be honest… also note for next month nowcast is already calling for a 3.3% CPI print! So the question is how do we trade this and what is the market going to do? Well I would NOT trade this at all… why? Simple… its been months since we have had a decent reaction that would make the risk to reward of the payout worth it… Now how will the market react? https://preview.redd.it/f66jg67ja25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3f0bedea7bd1e0b03d179c0aa00e3343e6d7120 As you can see here the last month things have been very up and down… but as of current time of writing this… the markets see the highest odds of a PAUSE at this meeting next week… now this is where I still think the markets have it wrong… there has been ZERO indication for JPOW about a pause… pretty much every time JPOW himself has actually spoken he has ALWAYS said he is going to do a 25bps hike and that there is NO RATE CUTS this year… now this is really where I think markets have it all wrong… The markets were pricing in 75bps of cuts by EOY… Impressively… the markets now have the highest odds of NO RATE CUTS by end of year.. I do think the markets finally have this correct… however, while the odds may be correct now…. I do not see the markets reacting correctly… I do think if JPOW hikes 25bps on Wednesday (which is highly probable in my opinion) that we will see a negative reaction to that… but I do see that as a likely call entry opportunity whenever that sell off stops… SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/37nzgcoja25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=beb0429c61f63154217a3312012b0791a67bd0a9 Well after putting that 426.6 demand in we have now immediately turned around and put a new supply in at 429.13… however, do you see the issue with it? We are imbalanced.. why? Simply because today we are going to close higher than where the supply is put in… that means markets will need to come back down OR immediately turn around and make a new demand Monday… One interesting thing is that since pretty much April 26th SPY has not broken through a previous demand after establishing a supply… what do I mean… I mean lets take that 410.2 demand… after markets put that in and put in a new supply (was around 420) the markets held that 420.1 demand and did not close below it… we have been stair stacking (bullishly) new demands since 404 area. However with 3 supplies here at this 428-430 area now this has become one extremely strong resistance… SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/dt9tk65ka25b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=e43d31e346f866864d8f1f8bdec87e8afd7705eb There is actually no changes to the weekly time frame here… we closed over previous supply and did not put in a new supply… DMI remains overbought and SPY remains ready to put in a new supply on any red week… SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/8d4w4cmka25b1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=1602d4493f652ff4a2e3f90a6684dcce9105423b SPY daily here remains in this black bull channel that it has been in since May 23rd… we also have the bigger broad red/blue bull channel since March 8th… Now this is a CLASSIC bearish reversal pattern with this evening doji star closure… we also once again failed to close over 430.. We did close higher than the august 16th closure but we did not close over 430 yet again… this would be 4 failed rejections in the last 5 trading days from closing over 430. I would not be surprised to see price come back down to 426.5 demand (support) or perhaps 428 supply on Monday… however, I do forsee it still being bullish… honestly until this black bull channel is broken and really until we close under the daily 20ema this remains bullish and dips remain call opportunities… SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/ixppty3la25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f87468e9f4069cbf1f940772c7974c3f0245d67 I think this weekly chart clearly shows the overall trend and shows everything the best… Here you can see since the beginning of march we have been in this blue bull channel. Until SPY breaks under that weekly support (419 for next week) as you can see by the wicks this remains a buy the dip market… we also have a large red/ blue rising wedge that we have been trading within since middle of September… that resistance sits at 436.1 for next week. SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 -> 381.74 Support- 428.2 -> 422.1 -> 418.6 Resistance- 430 -> 436.9 -> 444.3 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/kx0gzspla25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=db649f5b552b3aed3a9e6c4e76ec6582a7ef46a8 Not surprisingly here futures followed suit of SPY and also put in a new supply at 4298. We actually are imbalanced on futures which does not usually happen. So that will be interesting to watch get sorted out over next week.. as of right now futes minimally needs to close under 4299 in order to be balanced. 4312 is the supply and resistance from the august high and we once again failed to close over that level… it is safe to assume for now 4312 is strong resistance. FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/svdlwnbma25b1.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&s=14acae6419a030a8aeb9c1e2fc9b427efa2c2d3d No changes to futures weekly supply and demand… we are attempting to make 4284 into a support, however, it is not set up to turn it into a demand which would be incredible bullish. NOTE ON FUTURES- on tradingview (where I primarily chart) the contracts rolled over night and when that happens the charting is always messed up for about a week because there was about a 100pt gap up due to that… there is a way to adjust for contracts but none of my levels are adjusted for that so it would throw everything off… for now I wont be including Futes daily or weekly price action until things normalize some… I will not include support/ resistance either as it is incorrect. FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS- Supply weekly- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Supply daily- 4240 -> 4292 -> 4298 -> 4312 Demand weekly- 4130 -> 3921 Demand daily- 4273 -> 4188 QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/t27jd4uma25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7a420b28f8197059f3661f5c76c13de586309a9 Now I said yesterday I was VERY bullish on QQQ and that I was looking for 358-361… we ended up coming super close at open with hitting 357.66 but we did come up and retest that 357.09 supply and once again failed to break through and close over that level… we actually have really turned 354.95 supply into a major resistance here with this being the 5th rejection in 6 days at this level… Now we did put in a new demand at 349.06 today… however, I will say I am VERY bearish on QQQ for Monday… I would not be surprised at all to see QQQ come back down to at least 351 on Monday… If you look at QQQ objectively since 5/26 it has been holding within a 347.93 to 357.09 range for 10 closes in a row now… this right now is our consolidation period/ range… QQQ likely could drop down to 350-351 Monday and could possibly put in a new supply at 354.5 area.. if it did that then we absolutely would look for 348-349 to bounce us and look to long it back to 357. However, IF we can retrace to 349-351 and not put in a new supply I would actually be even more bullish and would look for 361.7 demand to be taken out next week. Now daily DMI is waving up which is bullish and we did hold the daily 8ema today… however, that massive evening doji star bearish reversal candle certainly should result in a drop… daily also broke extreme bull momentum… QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/w2cyodena25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=91cb41721eb6ba34f7ce65e253b6559dc20f5cad Now on QQQ weekly here this is looking far more bearish… we just put in a double top with back to back dojis with a weekly supply at 354.65. This is our first supply since the first week of May. Now only that but we also have a weekly DMI wave down forming here on QQQ. I will say though that despite this bearish set up that we have here… QQQ weekly remains in extreme bull momentum (despite the daily losing it) which means the weekly 8ema likely will be support on any retrace… that weekly 8ema should sit somewhere near 340 next week. Impressively QQQ weekly has NOT broken through the 8ema since the first week of may (5 weeks in a row) and we have not closed under the weekly 8ema since the week of March 6th. As you can see we are working on a yellow rising wedge since the week of December 12th. For me we have that 330.67 supply to keep an eye on next week… However, that would not only break the weekly 8ema but would also break the 6 month long rising wedge support… I do not think QQQ has seen the weakness and top to do that… likely weekly support will sit at 337.7 at the lowest next week but I will look for 339-340 to be a bounce point. On the upside if we immediately bounce higher next week we actually could turn this weekly 354.65 supply immediately into a demand which would be incredibly bullish. Upside resistance of the wedge sits at 359.94 and we have a weekly supply at 361.85 to keep an eye on. QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 354.65 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 316.18 VIX https://preview.redd.it/vpt87ypoa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=85982d70d65880ab5b59bef5137b2a007ee4f330 Even though it looked like the VIX would never recover and was just going to keep falling and falling and falling…. We actually did it… we actually put in a new daily demand (support) on the VIX at 13.62! This is our first demand the VIX has put in since May 18th… Fun fact about the VIX and putting in Demands (taking the move from low to high of when VIX puts in a demand till its next supply)… March 6th= VIX +65.6%, SPY -6.5% March 14th= VIX +34.1%, SPY -2.5% March 21st= VIX +16.9%, SPY -2.3% April 4th= VIX +8.1%, SPY -1.42% April 6th= VIX +9%, SPY +0.71% April 18th= VIX +20%, SPY -2.9% May 1st= VIX +37.2%, SPY -3.3% May 11th= VIX +9.6%, SPY -0.6% May 18th= VIX +29.9%, SPY -2.6% This is becoming my new favorite thing to do… What does this show? On average over the last 9 times the VIX has put a new demand (support) in it has bounced 25.6% and SPY has fallen -2.38%. There is one time in April though where SPY did randomly push higher despite the VIX pushing up 9%... But what does this mean? Well this means that if this plays out like normal the VIX will see around $17 and SPY could drop to $421.7 before we put a new supply in on the VIX (I will calculate that out once that happens). Now thre is always the chance with low daily volatility and daily/ weekly extreme bear momentum that we do not do that and immediately turn around and put a new supply in… but I will say since November there has not been a time we have seen with the supply indicator this low that we have immediately turned around a put a new supply in… The highest probability is that we see a bounce here on the VIX and drop on SPY… we also broke the 12 day long bear channel today… the next step is for bears to close VIX over the daily 8ema and this should breakout. Next week with CPI and FOMC truly could be really spicy… WEEKLY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/qyf6hg9pa25b1.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=db67d531b4556d96212793314679824a4bb124b9 Well I wasn’t supposed to be trading today… but ended up getting home earlier than expected and was able to get some solid trading in today. Today was a refreshing breath of air after getting absolutely wrecked yesterday… today was perfect trading and felt perfect to trade, however, after about 145 I will say that we once again say internals not matching correctly… Overall I failed to reach my weekly profit goal but on an extremely positive note here I was able to break the curse of Fridays by putting in a green day (even after realizing my tsla loss). This close out as a nice green week and I am not too upset with the results especially after how brutal yesterday was. I have now been green for the last 10 weeks in a row which is one week shorter than my longest weekly streak in 2022! I hope you guys all have a great weekend and I will see you guys next week! submitted by DaddyDersch to u/DaddyDersch [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 23:33 Enali (Spoilers Extended) And Out Come the Wolves...
“Now this is the Law of the Jungle -- as old and as true as the sky; And the Wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the Wolf that shall break it must die. As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk the Law runneth forward and back -- For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.” (Rudyard Kipling)
Will the Stark direwolves face off against the Bolton hounds as the white winds blow across the frozen wilds in the Battle of Ice? Towards the leadup to Game of Thrones' Battle of Bastards episode GRRM left this tantalizing glimpse for its showrunners:
[N.B. A note for future reference. A season or two down the line Ramsay’s pack of wolfhounds are going to be sent against the Stark direwolves, so we should build up the dogs as much as possible in this and subsequent episodes.]
And it feels like there's a sense of certainty in the note that clues us to the future of his work, but how
could it even work in the books? The march on Winterfell so far is a fair bit different than its show counterpart (assuming that's what it is), and the direwolves are spread all across the map, seemingly content to be where they are. But with Boltons on a collision course with Stannis, and the food running sparse, it sets a short time window for this encounter to manifest, assuming of course, that the Boltons are defeated in the fight. Which perhaps teasingly takes form in a village in the middle of the giant primordial forest called the Wolfswood.
"The wolfswood," Benjen Stark called it, and indeed their nights came alive with the howls of distant packs, and some not so distant. Jon Snow's albino direwolf pricked up his ears at the nightly howling, but never raised his own voice in reply. There was something very unsettling about that animal, Tyrion thought.
Given Stannis' confirmed role in the burning of Shireen, and Dany's HotU vision of the blue eyed king casting no shadow, (as well as the fan favorite Night Lamp theory) it seems like a safe guess he will survive the first bout at least.
Despite the limitations of time and distance several clues surrounding the training of Ramsay's hounds in the books seem to suggest similar buildup:
"He's trained 'em to kill wolves as well," Ben Bones had confided. Reek said nothing. He knew which wolves the girls were meant to kill, but he had no wish to watch the girls fighting over his severed toe.
...
"Stark's little wolflings are dead," said Ramsay, sloshing some more ale into his cup, "and they'll stay dead. Let them show their ugly faces, and my girls will rip those wolves of theirs to pieces. The sooner they turn up, the sooner I kill them again."
and this quote not directly referencing Ramsay's hounds but seemingly related (credit to LChris24's
post or I would have missed this one):
The rest of the dogs were close behind, the hounds sniffing and barking, a pair of monstrous mastiffs bringing up the rear. Their size and ferocity might make the difference against a cornered direwolf.
I think there is a solid amount of buildup to the possibility of these two forces coming together, claw and gnashing fang.
The Call of the Wild
“The Wild still lingered in him and the wolf in him merely slept.” (Jack London)
Of the four remaining direwolves in the series though their positions are spread far from Winterfell, so the logistics of having the come together will be important for this to work.
Summer - we last leave Bran's direwolf at the cave of the last greenseer, at the giant weirwood who's roots lead to Westeros' underworld. The drifts have grown so strong that the entrance to the cavern has become snowed over - something Summer must dig through each night to join his pack and hunt while the restless dead wander outside (and living prey remain scarce), before retreating to the cave during the day to to get good-boy head pats from Meera sitting with Bran near the fire. Bran's connection to Summer remains, though his identity seems to be becoming more and more split between his various forms, sometimes as Summer, others as a raven learning to fly or in the roots of the tree traversing time and space. Summer has been able to take control of One Eye's small pack (who is being warged into by Varamyr) after their skirmish and they were even able to take out an undead snow bear together. So what could get Summer moving south? Will Bran read the fates in the tree and send him out? Will something happen to Bran at the tree that sets this event in motion? Summer may not be the largest of the direwolves, though he is often perceived as the smartest and most perceptive.
Shaggydog - Rickon's black direwolf with the eyes of green wildfire is the most savage of the pack, despite his size, and Rickon himself seems to becoming more and more in tune with his wolf each passing day. A strengthening connection Jon seemed to experience as well after reuniting with Ghost leading up to the mutiny. Rickon also seems to have a connection to prophecy similar to Bran, awaiting their father in the Crypts of Winterfell... though unlike Bran he seems to have more a natural comfort in darkness and with death. Shaggydog is in Skagos, last seen in one of Jon's wolf dreams tearing off the flesh of an enormous goat/[unicorn] in a wild rain washing the blood where his prey's horn raked him. In the early drafts of AFFC (thanks to gsteff's research) we actually see that the direwolf was sharing the kill 'with his other half' though that part was removed leaving Rickon's fate more uncertain. How does he get back? That part seems clear at least, Davos is currently en route to try to retrieve the boy and bring him for Wyman Manderly to setup as an heir to Winterfell, though there are plenty of ominous signs on the voyage (the barren seal rock, Davos' missing fingerbones, and per Bran Rickon telling him no will ever come back to Winterfell).
Nymeria - Arya's wolfie is leading a very successful life since she was let go near the Trident to protect her from Cersei's wrath, a spot she hasn't strayed too far from given the abundance of prey compared to the frigid north. Nymeria has gathered an enormous following of wolves that haunts the Riverlands and the Kingsroad. ("She says there's this great pack, hundreds of them, mankillers. The one that leads them is a she-wolf, a bitch from the seventh hell.") Under Nymeria's leadership her grey cousins have "lost all fear of men" ransacking baggage trains, killing armed sentries near Riverrun, and even tearing apart a group of Brave Companions, so that its remarked that they are not wolves at all but "demons in the skins of wolves, sent to chastise us for our sins." Nymeria seems to represent the one part of Arya that she can't shake even as she convinces herself that she is no one, or that she is a cat now wandering Braavos. At night the dreams return tethering her to her roots. In Mercy's Winds excerpt we see a last glimpse of Nymeria, running through dark pine forests hard on the scent of prey, and with a howling in her heart, the full moon overhead as the tree (perhaps Bran or Bloodraven) watches her run. Is she still in the Riverlands (if so will she play a part in the events around Lady Stoneheart) or has she finally started to head home? I'd hate for her to be left out of the reunion as... "When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives. "
Ghost - And of course Jon's direwolf, Ghost, his silent white shadow. Ghost is left at Castle Black while the mutiny occurs, and it seems likely, that with Jon's last words they are now together in one form. This would also fit Melisandre vision "Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again." Jon has also thought in the past if some part of his brothers remained in their wolves when they died. But Ghost was left locked up in the Lord Commander's Tower to prevent an incident with the skinchanger Borroq or his giant boar who the wolf distrusts. Will the mutineers go after Ghost now that Jon has been slain? If so he may need to fight his way out once they open the doors.... or, perhaps, Melisandre might let him go herself. Ghost and her have a pretty uncanny connection with their blazing red eyes (though Jon thinks the red of Ghost's eyes is more of the Old Gods), and Ghost even hesitates to leave her side to go back to Jon when called ("Warmth calls to warmth, Jon Snow"). According to Melisandre there is power in him and the beast which Jon Snow has been resisting and is yet to use... She also mentions Lord Snow would have need of her beyond the Wall ("He does not know it yet, but soon..."). Very mysterious....
But one thing seems clearer, if Ghost is to head south, he already has good cause to. One of Jon's last convictions before his death was to march south to Winterfell try to save his sister after incited by the pink letter. If his soul has carried over to the wolf perhaps that conviction may still remain....
There may or may not even be one subtle additional hint that Summer and Shaggydog could be in Winterfell soon worth discussing. In the finale chapter of A Clash of Kings Bran has one of the more prominent wolf dreams in the series while hiding in the crypts. In it he sees Winterfell burned and everyone there killled, and we are meant to believe that this was the view of what was happening right outside, as the Bolton forces sacked it. But while what he sees seems to match up, some elements of the dream remain questionable - among them the "great winged snake whose roar was a river of flame." (a pretty reasonable depiction of a dragon that might occur from a wolf's pov). Though the interpretation differs amongst readers - Some believe its just GRRM taking visual liberties with the smoke and fire... though wolves recognized real smoke and fire just before that and wolf povs are fairly unpoetic with their descriptions. Some also think it it may have been a way to describe the red comet, but the figure soon disappears from view which could be strange, unless its just meant to be obscured. Or was it a real dragon? It might have been one of the rumored offspring of Vermax born near the hot springs, sneaking in during the carnage. Osha does mention that they "made noise enough to wake a dragon." But perhaps one other interpretation is that Bran was dreaming green, seeing prophecy instead of present. Because Winterfell has been partially rebuilt by the Boltons and Freys during their occupation, we may see Winterfell burned once more. If Stannis takes the city, he may just start a new fire to wake dragons from stone, one that may escape his control.
The Cry of the Blood Moon
There is one really interesting way I think the direwolves might be finally called together. There's been a lot said about how quiet is Ghost throughout the books.... only Jon seems to hear him, perhaps telepathically, calling to him at the beginning when no one else could. But with Jon now inhabiting Ghost, could the direwolf gain his voice at last?
Ghost sat on his haunches watching, silent as ever. Will he howl for me when I'm dead, as Bran's wolf howled when he fell? Jon wondered. Will Shaggydog howl, far off in Winterfell, and Grey Wind and Nymeria, wherever they might be?
Ghost is drawn to the hills and the high places looking up at the stars, and while he starts off the smallest of the litter he soon grows to be the largest of the direwolves, perhaps foreshadowing his strength and leadership. Maybe its fitting then that it would be Ghost that calls them home to be a pack again with the boy's death.
Do they miss their brothers and sisters too? Bran wondered. Are they calling to Grey Wind and Ghost, to Nymeria and Lady's Shade? Do they want them to come home and be a pack together?
And if so would it be a physical blood curdling howl in grief or a telepathic one?
There was ice underfoot, and broken stones just waiting to turn an ankle, and the wind was howling fiercely. It sounds like a wolf, thought Sansa. A ghost wolf, big as mountains.
~Thank you for Reading!~
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2023.06.09 23:33 Junepero Story’s of panem 104th hunger games blood bath day 1 and 2 I’m making a reference in the tale feel free and try to guess if ye would like
Day 1 The cornocoupia layed within the middle of the castle featuring new weapons guns swords and even more weapons for the captials delight. Outside of the castle is surrounded by a vast majorty of forests below the castle featured a rather nice beachsides. One thing of note was the hourly geysers that would shoot and if a tribute were unlucky to stumble upon it they would be shot straight into the arena roof then pushed down into the oceans. As the direction was turned back to the cornucopia the countdown begun. The carrers attempted to quickly locate each other moments later after giving the starting node they aimed to at least get 5 tributes out. Charlie from 9 was place exquadistant from Midge (4) and sunny from (11). Tinsele from (5) whimpered as Alavdor(1) meansingly grinned. After game maker Whimsiwick wished the tributes well the blood bath began. Alavdor and Ursula from (1) charged in fighting hand and hand with the guns. Both shot 2 of their opponents Tinselle (5) Suprisingly died earlier after being ambushed and then died from the boy from 10. After a rather chaotic blood bath 1 more cannons sounded. Causing a memorable games to occur. As most of the tributes ran off 3 sponsor gifts flew in for the carrers Clemot noticed his had a battery he grined happily placing it behind a near by cornocpiua wall. WIth a later interview with head game maker Mortmer Whimsick he stated that Clemots knowledge of exlposive greatly impressed him causing him to be a dark horse with this years games. For the next few hours they hunted down and killed Charlie from 9 and Darius from 12. “Its gonna be a quick games i can feel it.” Ursualua suddenly stated. After nodding quietly the careers had continued to wander throughout the arena. However as they were walking into the beachside a loud shroom occured as the careers hid and watched Io (3) being flown into the air by the sudden geyser sounding his cannon imedtitaly. Afterword as his district part Danielia yelped lowldy Ursaula quickly ran in and snapped Daniellas neck sounding her cannon as well. After that they then feasted upon a picnic they were given by sponsors. Though as Midge (4) was finishing up the soup cansitar a loud caboom was heard. The carrers were rather confused but as many of the near by trees fell Juliso from (9) then jumped out tumbling into Alvador and Marina. As Alavador held a knife to Julisos throat. But as Ursula yelled at him to stop he then reliazed that Juliso was the one Ursula acquired. As Alavdor drooped the knife Juliso ran hiding behind Clemot (5). Clemot then walked toward Marina. “Your showing weakness already good heavens you have first watch dummy.” Juliso nodded as he then grinned as Midge tossed him a near by titanium waterbottle. Juliso thanked him as he then joined the careers in exploring the arena further. After 3 hours they then decided to rest for the day. Before there rest they came to the conclusion that there was only 18 tributes remainig. As they then began to rest Clemot awoke within the middle of the night for his night watch. As Midge awoke he then joined Clemot as they then listened to horn of plenty playing featuring the fallen tributes. Io and Daniela both from 3 Tinselle from 5 Plush from 8 Charlie from 9 Sunny from 11 and Darius ftom 12. Leaving 19 tributes remaing. Clemot then walked away saying along the way “If you so really want to see what im doing to the outliers then come.” Midge smiled and nodded as he then walked with him to the beach. Clemot then turned on the battery creating a vast electric current sounding 1 cannon. The cannon belonged to Houstoun from 6 after being badly elctricuted by the battery. After his body was removed Midge grinned patting him on the head saying after. “Ima help ye with your little plan.” After this statement the district 4 and 5 supporters in the capital cheered in anticipation until this was stooped by commander Anastia Fling screaming “its 2 in the morning im sleeping.” The applause and cheers turned down as Camelia then begun a rather quiet end of day analysis. Back in the arena the boys returned back to the carrer camp sleeping Day 2. Once the careers awoke they were greeted with a rather horrific display of Ursula had been stabbed by Juliso. Alavdor then chased down Juliso manging to get 3 arrows in his foot hearing Ursulas cannon sounded. After angrily throwing a apple at there supplys another boom occured as Alavdor then was flown back hitting many trees manging to nock Wine from 11 and Oilvia from 12 to fall as 3 cannons sounded. As much laughter stroke the capital audiences Nico Anderson new head editor of Anderson Fashion even said that “Mr boom boom is getting Lucky.” Even in the mentoring gallery Gravito Logan victor of the 100th hunger games shouted “Thats my boy.” As he then was told to “Shut up.” by Optimo Braun victor of the 100th hunger games. Back in the arena 2 more cannons sounded belonging to Plush and Patch both from 8. Got shot into the arena roof from the gysers. In a later interview with game maker Laurier he did state that the geysers had a little to much power but had been comical for the capital. Marina from 4 looked at Clemot asking “Was that you.” Clemot nodded adding in “My mentor wants me to survive cant picture how he would be if i died.” Marina yepled and ran away as her own district partner Midge chased her down pushing her into the geyser sounding her cannon. Midge and Clemot then abondened the camp only taking 5 waterbottles and 3 sandwhiches. The boys then re entered the house going into a room and surprisingly resting for once. The boys had chatted about there home districts. Feeling rather confused after his conversation with Clemot both boys took a quick nap later waking up around 5pm in the evening. They then were confused and gave a short laugh clearly thinking they had slept passed 12 pm. Clemot then asked if any tributes died. Midge nodded then stating that the explosives were set causing a another explody mess with 8 cannons sounded. Apperantly this was a lie only 4 cannons then sounded. Nothing more happened within the day greatly boring the capital citizens but this was later changed in the next day. Once midnight fell the 8 fallen tributes were shown
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2023.06.09 23:31 GuessableSevens My final (and very controversial) NBA Draft Lottery Board
Preamble This draft ranking does not reflect who I believe will be taken at each draft position, nor which player fits best with each team at each draft position. This draft ranking is solely a reflection of who I think should be taken in each draft position based on their
most likely (read: median or 50th percentile) outcome. My draft philosophy generally values players based on how well I think they would do on a typical NBA championship contending roster. I typically value shooting a lot, because historically it matters a lot.
TLDR:
- Wemby
- Scoot
- Brandon Miller
- Taylor Hendricks
- Kobe Bufkin
- Cason Wallace
- Anthony Black
- Brice Sensabaugh
- Gradey Dick
- Jordan Hawkins
- Amen Thompson
- Jarace Walker
- Cam Whitmore
- Derek Lively
Long form:
1. Victor Wembanyama: I think he has a very clear path to be the greatest defensive player of all time. His improvement on the defensive end this season from Game 1 to Game 48 was utterly remarkable, and I think he profiles to be a top 5-10 Centre in the league as a rookie on the back of this ability alone. I think his offense needs a lot of work, and while it’s possible he could become an unstoppable force on that end, I don’t really see him reaching the heights of KAJ or Hakeem or Shaq. He doesn’t really have any moves to get him easy points, and NBA teams will soon figure out that undersized PFs with a strong and low centre of gravity (PJ Tucker, Al Horford, Draymond Green, OG Anunoby types) can get into his body and completely take him out of the game. He never really figured out how to overcome these defenders this season in France, whereas he improved in every other respect. Aside from that, I think the shooting will become very good with time, and I think it will be a privilege to watch his career. Oh, and I have no real injury concerns, nor would they change my evaluation of him when his ceiling and floor are both this high.
2. Scoot Henderson: I think he’s going to be a franchise PG, simple as that. Will he reach the top echelon (top 5-10 player in the league) or not, I don’t know. However, I need a PG who has a good handle, who has athleticism, who has good vision and playmaking, and who can shoot off the dribble. While most will not be impressed by his 3P shooting numbers, he shot 31% from 3P off the dribble (NBA 3P line), and 42% on small volume catch and shoots. He also shot 38% from midrange on the highest volume in the entire class, which would be 4th best behind Sensabaugh, JHS, and Cason Wallace. If he can hit C&S 3s, and he is a great midrange pull-up shooter, I believe the pull-up 3P shooting will come around. He’s also a rock defensively when he’s engaged. This is not really a discussion imo.
3. Brandon Miller: I’m lower on Miller than some, but I still think it’s impossible to deny what he accomplished this season. I like his premium shooting, positional size, and the fact that he has no glaring holes. I think there is very little argument for him to be above Scoot, because he just does not have on-ball juice as a lead handler. He has a good handle for his size and he can make basic reads, but he’s not going to be a guy who can get to the rim 20 times a night like Scoot can. Yes, he has a high floor because he will always have his shooting, but a 3 & D player or #2/3 option is much less valuable than a star lead handler (Ja Morant is more valuable than Khris Middleton).
4. Taylor Hendricks: Taylor Hendricks has three major strengths – high level rim protection (especially as a secondary rim protector), excellent switchability and versatility, and excellent shooting for the PF position. In today’s NBA, on a contending team, that literally the only three things you need from your perfect PF role player. Unlike many of the players I’ve ranked lower, Hendricks only has to continue to do what he already does well in order to be a valuable player for a contending team. His weaknesses – on-ball creation, handle, iffy-but-passable finishing on layups – are not things I NEED from him to feel good about him. If you told me those things will not improve for him until his 5th or 6th year of his career, it still wouldn’t change my mind. As long as his strengths translate (and I think they will), he will be a top 5-10 PF in the league for a long time IMO. That’s worth a top 5 pick to me, even if he won’t be a lead creator.
5. Kobe Bufkin: For me, Bufkin and Hendricks are neck and neck, and I would be fine with either one being #4. With Bufkin, Michigan was +10 with him on the floor and -11 with him off this season. He shot 40% from 3P after his first 5 games this year, and he shoots 85% from the line. He shoots 70% at the rim, and 66% at the rim in the half court. These are all elite numbers. He also shot 37.5% from midrange pull-ups, which is Scoot-tier (albeit on half the volume). Lastly, he shot 34.5% on pull-up 3s, which is solid and very valuable for a guard prospect. I also love that Bufkin just has amazing hands, I liken him a bit to Kyrie, though of course he isn’t that level. Defensively he is a rock, he’s got good positional size, he’s a solid athlete, his passing vision is good-not-great but he’s a score-first guard, and he’s freshman-aged despite being a sophomore. Overall, I guess I just think he’s possibly the most skilled guard in the class, and he has everything else.
6. Cason Wallace: Wallace has been miscast as a “defense-first” guard IMO. He offers excellent defense at the guard position, but he’s also just a great point guard. I think people underrate his shooting – 35% from 3P, including 33% on pull-ups and a staggering 45% on midrange pull-up 2s. At the rim, he shoots 65% which is excellent, and 56% on halfcourt layups which is not quite Bufkin-tier, but the same as Scoot. Essentially, I have no concerns about Wallace’s scoring ability in the NBA – the 3P shot will improve and he’s already great everywhere else. I think his passing vision is a good even if not elite, and he makes the right reads almost everytime. His defense is better than Bufkin’s but I also think he’s become overrated – he doesn’t have the physique to be a Marcus Smart or Jrue Holiday. He’s just going to be a solid POA defender, get steals, get blocks, and make smart rotations on defense while giving you some switching. I understand the qualms about his shot creation ability because he doesn’t really pop off the page, but I think it’s being overstated – he can drive and get to the rim, even through the bad spacing he had to deal with. Also, realistically, most guards use a screen in today’s NBA anyway.
7. Anthony Black: AB has two elite skills – perimeter defense, and vision/playmaking. If you haven’t seen the Maui invitational, I highly recommend – specifically his 4th Q performance against Creighton. This guy does not miss any reads. He’s an absolute gifted passer, and he’s over sized. I think on a team with a good roll man, he is going to be a devastating PnR passing threat. He’s got good athleticism to get to the rim and he’s a monster on defense. The shooting will always be a question with him, and I am not optimistic. If I felt better about his ugly ass form and ability to hit 3s, I might even have him at #4. Unfortunately, pull-up 3P and 2P shooting matters a lot for NBA guards, and I’m not sure how good he can really get at those. Still, I think his game is extremely similar to Josh Giddey except more athletic and much better defensively, so I think he has a good role to play in today’s NBA.
8. Brice Sensabaugh: I think it has become lost on us how elite Sensabaugh is as a shooter and scorer. He shot a blistering 52.6% on pull-up 2s on high volume, and shot 40% from 3 (only 26% on pull-up 3s, which I cannot explain other than the fact that it was low volume). He is a gifted scoring prospect, and these are KD/Derozan tier numbers. His defense is bad, but if you watch the film, it’s largely when he’s not engaged/focused. Doesn’t get into his stance, doesn’t pay attention to rotations, etc. However, late game and early game (i.e. when he is focused), I was surprised at how adept he was as a post-defender and I would even say he had decent lateral movement when he was in his stance. I think the offensive upside is so high that he merits a pick here, and a bet that he can be a focused defender in a more limited role playing less minutes. AJ Griffin was a similarly horrific defender last season in addition to being a highly skilled scorer, and his defense has been totally fine this past year. I think at #8, the upside you get if you can coach him to be engaged defensively like Griffin is worth the swing. To be clear, if he was a plus defender, I’d have him over Brandon Miller at #3.
9. Gradey Dick: Everyone knows about the elite shooting with prospects like this. The question is always “what about the defense and the rest?”. To me, Dick is actually a plus defender, I don’t understand why his defense is so hated. He moves his feet excellently, he’s got good positional size, he’s scrappy, and he gets steals. Ultimately, this is your SG – there’s only so much you can ask of defense from that position. He is an adept cutter, plays with a high IQ, he’s athletic, finishes well at the rim… I honestly don’t know what there is to not like. He takes the odd midranger and attacks closeouts well too. This type of player is never going to be a star, but I view him as a Kevin Huerter-type. If he puts on muscle, I could even be convinced that he could be better than Huerter. Kevin Huerter is easily worth a #9 overall pick.
10. Jordan Hawkins: Hawkins is probably the best shooter in the class IMO. He is also a plus defender, probably better than Dick. The reason I don’t have him above Dick is because I don’t think his IQ is as high as Dick’s. He’s not the same level cutter, he isn’t as good at making the next pass or attacking closeouts, he’s not gonna crash the class and get a clutch rebound the way Dick does, and he’s a year older. Still a valuable role player.
11. Amen Thompson: Flat out – I put >50% chance Amen is going to be a bust. I buy his athleticism, but that’s about it. I agree he has some passing vision, but it’s super overrated IMO. A lot of it is transition (near worthless to me), and within the halfcourt he has some flashy highlights, but I don’t even know if he’s a smart decision-maker in the PnR, because we didn’t really see him face good PnR defenses in OTE. I don’t see him finishing around 7 footers, or making difficult passes to the roll man. Despite his athleticism, if you watch the OTE Finals series, he actually struggles to beat his defender in crunch time, which makes you wonder how that’ll go in the NBA. The shooting is broken as hell, I don’t think itll ever come around since he’s been working on it for 2 years and it hasn’t improved. The handle is loose, the motor is not high and he didn’t exactly dominate OTE… he’s older too. I just think he’s going to bust, simple as that. On the off-chance I’m wrong about his passing, and he sorts out his aggressiveness issues and puts more pressure on the rim in the NBA, I think he’s worth a flyer in this range. I think he’s a huge mistake as a top 5 pick though, he’s not an NBA player today or in the near future.
12. Jarace Walker: Some will be confused as to why I have Walker so far behind Hendricks. I think Walker has a high chance of busting, and I don’t consider them to be the same caliber of prospect. To begin, he is not a great point-of-attack defender, unlike Hendricks (despite Walker being smaller). He gets blown by way too often, and this will only get worse in the NBA. Interestingly, when Caitlin Cooper did a breakdown of his game, I noticed she didn’t mention or notice this at all but I care about this a lot. For this reason, despite being smaller than Hendricks, he’s also not as switchable (Hendricks is the better lateral mover). I do agree he is a breath-taking helpside rim protector, so that makes up for it a little. I also think he has good IQ on both ends which helps. Offensively though, I think people will be disappointed. The shot just doesn’t fall for him, and FTs are an issue too. He has the perfect physique to play bully ball and put guys under the rim, but he just doesn’t. He plays remarkably soft for a guy with his build, it almost reminds me of Deandre Ayton – a guy who should be physically dominant but just doesn’t want to be. His handle is good for a PF/C, but certainly not good enough to be a ball handler in any capacity. Yes he can pass, but when is he going to use that skill if he can’t shoot and you’re not going to be running sets for him? I cannot imagine taking the ball out of a lead point guard’s hands to give isolation or PnR reps to Jarace Walker lol. People talk about the Draymond role all the time, but that’s a pipe dream. There have been 100 prospects since Draymond Green who we think will work as well as Draymond does, and they never do. Especially not Jarace, since he has some defensive flaws with his slow lateral movement, while Green is near flawless as a defender and played with the greatest shooters of all-time. Personally, I think Walker can be attacked on defense or in the PnR, and I think you can help off him because he isn’t a credible shooting threat, so I think he has significant bust potential.
13. Cam Whitmore: This is another guy I think has high bust potential. Cam’s elite skill is that he is an explosive one-footed leaper, and he can be a big threat driving to the rim in a straight line. Unfortunately, you need a lot more than that to be a real NBA player. For a guy who makes his living at the rim, for some reason he has a really low FTr which I can’t explain. His biggest red flag is his ball stopping nature and his lack of feel for the game/BBIQ. IF you’re going to be a ball stopper, you gotta be absolutely elite at scoring. He just isn’t. The shot looks good but his misses are so awfully bad, I have to believe he has a long way to go before he becomes a credible 3P threat, given that the NBA line is 2 feet further away. I think his top end outcome is basically Norman Powell, and I don’t think he will become good enough of a shooter or dynamic enough to get to the level of a Miles Bridges-type. On the off-chance his shooting comes around, he’s worth a swing in this range imo.
14. Derek Lively: I view him as a prospect who you feel confident in defensively, but the question will always be his role on offense. I like his defense so I think at worst he can be a bench Centre for a long time in the NBA, but you’d like more than that from a lottery pick. His finishing numbers are solid, so hopefully it’s a good sign.
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2023.06.09 23:30 bobwvng [H] Bundle leftovers, Destiny 2: Lightfall, F1 2020, more [W] Lost Ruins, Offers
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2023.06.09 23:30 bobwvng [H] Bundle leftovers, Destiny 2: Lightfall, F1 2020, more [W] Lost Ruins, Offers
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2023.06.09 23:25 PurePro71 A flowery forest, mangrove swamp, river (biome?), savannah, and windswept savannah surrounding a massive cliff. Seed: 7n6 crate unboxing (gone sexual) Coords: 1138 65 376
2023.06.09 23:03 codyxxo Failed 3 classes, many red flags, but still got the A
I’m not good at posting on social media, but I remember reading a story like this 5 years ago that gave me hope to keep pursuing my dream and I want to pay it forward.
Applicant profile
- ORM male, non SES
- 1st time applicant
- 1st generation healthcare worker with no connections to other doctors, hospitals, or med schools
- 3.4 uGPA - 3 Fs, 3 Cs in the first 2.5 years. 5 of these were prereqs (they had us in the first half not gonna lie). I retook all the Fs and one of the Cs and got 3 As and 1 B.
- Bio major. If you care, my undergrad was a somewhat prestigious school, and very STEM heavy. 5 years undergrad + 3 years SMP + 1 gap year. The SMP did not offer any linkage.
- 3.6 SMP gpa.
- 507 MCAT with 124 CARS (1st attempt, but could've done better).
- 480 clinical hours as a pct on a med surg floor - 980 by the time of my interview
- 200 hours as a secretary at the hospital (non clinical)
- 1400 research hours across 4 biochemistry/genetics labs and 3 middle author publications. ~2400 hours by the time of my interview and a poster presentation at an international conference right after the interview, which I included in an update letter
- 12 shadowing hours with a DO - 30hrs by the time of interview with 3 other MDs / DOs
- ~60 hrs tutoring + TA at my undergrad
- No listed volunteering hours (red flag).
- No listed clubs or leadership positions (red flag)
- Rec letters (in a committee letter from my SMP) from: a DO I work with, my grad school pre med advisor / PI, professoformer PI, psych professor. I didn't read them but they were probably all pretty good.
- No X factor that I'm aware of
- My interview was mid. Got asked pretty generic questions and I gave pretty standard answers. I'm just a boring dude.
- I have a very financially supportive family - I wouldn’t be where I am without their help.
10 MD secondaries submitted. 0 II
13 DO secondaries submitted. 1 II -> WL -> A ……at an OOS school with the highest average gpa of all the DO schools I applied to (>3.7, one of the “Big 5” DO schools)
Surprisingly, I wasn’t immediately screened out by any of the schools pre-secondary. Secondaries were submitted from mid-July through October. I tried to submit the MD ones sooner than the DOs. The secondary for my only A was sent around late July or early August IIRC. I received an II at the end of February and got off the waitlist in May.
So here’s my story
My first F was in gen Chem 1 because it was my first semester in college and I was immature and lacked self-discipline. I also got a C in intro to bio that semester. I later retook these classes and got As in both, and I got almost all As in the next 2 semesters. My spring sophomore and fall junior semesters were when things fell apart. I won’t get into the details but a mix of physical+mental health issues and unfortunate events in my social life made me lose focus, resulting in Fs in bio III and a university required rhetoric class, as well as Cs in orgo I & II. Then I was put on academic probation and “separated” from my university for 2 semesters.
At this point I was pretty devastated and started to consider switching career paths because I didn’t even know if it was still possible to get into any medical school with my grades. I ended my 3rd year with a 2.96 cumulative gpa - a number forever ingrained into my head. Even if I got all As the rest of the way and stayed a 5th year, my gpa would only be a 3.4, which would still make it very hard to get in. But I realized in my time off that nothing will be nearly as fulfilling to me as practicing medicine. I also knew that my grades in the past year were not indicative of my true abilities, I was just in a difficult situation. So I addressed all the issues that held me back in the past, and even started counseling as I prepared to start my premed track again.
Also, this was around the time when I started to focus on becoming a better person as a whole. Not that I ever had a history of doing anything seriously immoral, but having the time to finally be alone with no distractions granted me opportunity to be more introspective and think about the ideal person I wanted to be, rather than the person others wanted me to be. I remember browsing through a Reddit post some years ago asking suicidal people what quotes keep them going, and one reply that hit me hard was “one day someone’s going to need you, and you better be there for them”. Over time, I realized that the most important quality of my "ideal self", among others, is that I should always be available when people need me, and to put the needs of others above my own. I think this perspective I developed back then helped keep me motivated and focused on my path to become a physician, and still does to this day.
One of my biggest improvements after coming back was my work ethic. I came to terms with the fact that I simply am not as intellectually gifted as most of my peers. If they studied 6 hours for an exam, I would need to study 25 hours for a similar grade, and if that’s what it takes then so be it. If I were to be a doctor, my patients aren’t going to feel bad for me because I’m slow; what really matters are the results. With redemption on my mind I loaded my schedule for the next 2 years with rigorous medicine related classes such as immunology, dev bio, genetics, biochem, anatomy, etc. (I also retook the classes I failed and did well). I went to every lecture, every supplemental session, and spent almost every day of the school year studying at the library from ~5pm - 2am, and 11am - 2am on weekends. There were times when I didn’t take a day off for several weeks. One year during finals, I wouldn’t sleep more than 2hrs a night for the entire week because I studied so much. I also changed my studying methods to rely less on brute force memorization, and more on attaining a deep understanding of concepts. Luckily it all paid off.
Disclaimer: I would NOT recommend this work schedule for anyone. I just hated myself at the time, threw away my social life, and am strangely good at working while sleep deprived and hungry. Please take care of yourself.
Noteworthy parts of my application
When applying to medical schools I used my past failures as a testament of my persistence and resilience. It’s not like I could’ve hid my hideous grades anyway so might as well try to turn it into a strength. It ended up becoming a talking point in all my 1:1 interviews too. Some were impressed with my growth, although 1 still seemed a little concerned.
Another strength of my application was conveying how much I love working in healthcare through my experience as a PCT. The job is already hard enough having to take care of patients with dementia, C. Diff, incontinence, terminal cancer, COVID, diabetic ulcers, GI bleeds, hip/knee fractures, violent psych disorders, patients that are rude and non-compliant, etc. But I worked through the pandemic which was a complete shit show for months on end. The patient: nurse/PCT ratios were so ridiculous that it was honestly unsafe working conditions at times. Lots of people were quitting too which made things even harder. But this heavy workload, stress, and chaotic environment motivated me even more to show up everyday. I always thought to myself “at least I’m here. I can’t image how bad it would for the nurses and patients be if there were no PCTs”, and that if someone had to suffer in this position, I’m really glad it was me and not someone else. Looking back, however, I think my PS sounded too “woe is me” and when preparing for a re-app I was planning on scrapping that one completely for a more optimistic one.
I do regret not talking more about research in my PS and secondaries, however, as that was by far the EC that I spent the most time in, it’s something I’m kind of passionate about, and I probably understand it better than most applicants. Perhaps I would have gotten more interest from research-heavy MD schools if I did.
I never explained the cause of my poor grades that year, I only cited “personal issues” which in retrospect probably hurt my application. With this wording, it’s easy to assume the worst, like having a drug addiction or debilitating mental health issues, which was not the case. I should have said “I had distractions and lost focus”.
Advice for future applicants
If you dug yourself a hole as deep as I did, your first and foremost priority is to take care of your mental and physical health, which is more important than your gpa. Taking time off from school to fix yourself and recalibrate is a much better option than maintaining your downward trajectory and risking even worse health and grades.
Secondly, be very careful about continuing premed. I took a huge risk by sticking to premed, and just because it worked out for me doesn’t mean it’ll work out for everyone else. You should consider going all in on your path only if:
- You know exactly what went wrong and have a realistic plan on how to fix it. Be honest about your capabilities and weaknesses when making a plan. Ask yourself, if you were to retake classes you did poorly in, would you be confident in getting As in most if not all of them?
- You know with 100% certainty that you want to be a physician more than any other career after considering all your options. This may be obvious, but the earlier you jump ship, the less money and time you’ll waste on a journey going no where.
You should at least know if you even want to work in healthcare. I’ve never heard any one of my coworkers say they had a good day at the end of a shift. This work is not fun and the money and clout (however much you think there is) alone are not worth it. My personal justification for choosing healthcare is that working in a hospital has been the only place where I feel like I fit in. I’ve never been good at making friends, always crawled my way through school, and it’s hard to find hobbies and interests. But being on the floor, helping my patients and the team, is comforting for me, in a way. I feel like giving away parts of my life so that others can live theirs is what I was meant to do. I’m at baseline a lazy person, but at the hospital I feel like I have endless energy even after a 16 hour shift.
Don’t be discouraged by others’ success. “Comparison is the thief of joy”. Not gonna lie, seeing some sankeys of an applicant with 4.0 & 528, 7 first author pubs in no gap years, 6000 clinical hours, CEO of 3 companies, and an A for every single T20 school made me feel like a loser at times because my application was not even the same league. But keep in mind - 1) you don’t have to go to a top ranked school to be a good doctor, and 2) the path from point A to point B is different for everyone. For some, it’s short and straight; for others, it’s slow, bumpy, loopy, and goes backwards at times. But getting to point B in the end is what matters most. Medicine is not supposed to be a competition. So just be happy for them and focus on improving yourself. We’re all going to be called Dr. ___ in the end anyway.
Don’t listen to everything that people say, especially if they haven’t even applied to medical school - such as premed advisors. The only time I ever talked to my undergrad premed advisor, he pulled out a chart with a bell curve showing the likelihood of a med school acceptance based on GPA and MCAT. He pointed to coordinate (0,0), approximately, and said “you are here” and that was pretty much the entire conversation. Take everything with a grain of salt, even from successful applicants. My friend who’s an M3 said my application had too many red flags, that I won’t get in with any community service, and that I should’ve waited another year to apply. Which honestly wasn’t even bad advice, but I ended up proving her wrong anyway.
I wouldn’t necessarily recommend this but I actually stopped talking about premed stuff irl, which improved my mood. When meeting new people I just told them I'm planning on going into research and teaching (which is still true), because if I mentioned premed, a lot of the ensuing conversations were just annoying asf - like when they ask me what my gpa is, or give me unprompted, unwarranted advice. I also kinda took a step back from my premed and med school friends because I already spend a lot of time each day worrying about my application, and the last thing I want to do is talk about it more in my free time. Another reason is because some friends would lose respect for me if I told them about my academic struggles. And personally, I absolutely hated when people told me to give up on med school, which happened a few times.
MD schools with relatively low average stat ranges are a little deceptive. I naively applied to them thinking they would be easier to get into but now I know it's not the case. Usually these schools just care more about "fit" and less about boasting high stats, and you can often tell what they value in their secondary essay questions. For example, Rush and Tulane seem to like applicants with a ton of service hours, and experience with addressing health disparities and helping underserved communities. UIllinois likes engineering students, so it’s no wonder their average GPA is lower. So even if I had better stats, I'd still probably have no chance of getting into these schools. You can also figure out good fits by going through sankeys of applicants with similar stats and ECs as you, and see which schools they had success with.
If you’re a high stat applicant that is wondering how I got in - I don’t know either. There is definitely always an aspect of luck (and unfairness, in my opinion) in the application process, and obviously I was very lucky. A lot of people have fantastic applications, do everything right, and will make great doctors one day, but still don’t get an A this cycle. Also, some adcom members are just chemistry professors, PIs, and people with an MBA degree, who hardly know anything about practicing medicine, and it’s crazy that they’re the ones deciding who’s going to be in the next generation of doctors. Just keep applying, and definitely apply to schools based on mission fit, not just their stat ranges.
There’s more I want to say but my post is already super long. You can DM me if you have any questions. I'm no expert in anything but I'll be honest and I'll try my best
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2023.06.09 23:03 xtremexavier15 TSROTI 8 (pt 2)
The episode resumed on the giant octopus with its spiked tentacle held menacingly over the Maggots. It growled and reared the appendage back, prompting Geoff to quickly jump to the back with his teammates just before the front was slammed down upon, launching all four into the air.
They flew screaming across the lake, their shadows passing over the swimming Rats, and finally they crashed down onto the rocky beach of Wawanakwa. They groaned in pain, and Anne Maria was the first to lift her head and look around.
"Hey," she said, "we're in first place!"
"Rad," Geoff weakly groaned.
"The Maggots win," Chris called down from above, leaning out the open door of the helicopter, "and get these as a reward!"
He dropped down two objects, which Molly quickly caught – one was a compass, and the other fell open to reveal a map of the island. "A map and compass," the indie chick said flatly as her teammates looked at their reward.
"I'll keep those so I can navigate us better," Scarlett said, swiping the objects away from Molly.
"Weellll, look who just washed up!" Chris said, turning his attention to the edge of the water as the Rats finally swam ashore.
"I blame the octopus for leaving us like this," Sierra said.
"You can say that again," Scott responded.
"Put a sock in it!" Chris called down to them. "Now, the second part of today's challenge started off as a practical joke involving classic Total Drama competitor Amy. Buuuut, it's turned into more of a rescue mission," he said, pointing a remote down at the beach and pressing the button.
The shot cut to both teams on shore as they turned and looked at a television cart that had just been wheeled over by a long-haired white male intern. The screen cut from static to none other than Amy trapped inside what appeared to be a somewhat spacious wooden coffin. She woke up and bumped her head on the lid. "What? Where am I?" she asked, looking around in confusion. "I'm buried alive?!" she exclaimed and pounded on the low ceiling with her fist in a rather panicked fashion. "GET ME OUT OF HERE!"
"Burying someone alive is super dangerous," Trent scolded, "even by your standards."
"That's why we're using the buddy system," Chris told them. "And instead of letting last year's losers have all the fun, we brought in one of this year's duds!"
The cast's direction moved back to live feed of Amy as the sound of snoring was heard coming from within her prison. The camera zoomed out to show Katie curled up and asleep in the coffin with her.
"Katie! She's back!" DJ exclaimed excitedly. "What happened to her?"
"She ate a lot of Chef's buttolini," Chris explained as the focus cut back to the beach, "so she's gonna be out for a couple more minutes," he laughed.
"That is just messed up for you to do!" DJ scowled.
Confessional: Sammy
"Is it just me, or does Chris become more and more deranged with each passing season?" Sammy talked to the camera.
Confessional Ends
Chris carried on. "Maggots! You've got your compass and your map to the general vicinity of the chests at the other side of the island. First team to rescue the girls wins the challenge. Now go!"
Geoff, Molly, Anne Maria, and Scarlett ran off into the woods without another word, but as the Rats moved to follow, Chris landed his helicopter on the sand in front of them. "Uh-tu-tut-tut," he said, "not so fast. To the losers go the penalty belts. Chef," he turned to his grinning assistant, "lock 'em in!"
The cook stepped out of the pilot's seat and walked over to the five Rats, and the footage skipped ahead to him locking a metal belt around Trent's waist, with handcuffs attached to each side to keep his arms in place. The camera zoomed out and revealed that identical belts had already been locked onto his teammates.
"These things must weigh a hundred pounds!" Trent complained.
"120 pounds to be exact," Chris replied before slotting a metal detector onto his back.
"How is a metal detector supposed to help us find a chest?" Sierra asked in confusion.
"It's not," Chris smiled, taking out a red megaphone and shouting "Now GO! GO-GO-GO-GO-GO-GO!"
The Rats promptly ran off into the woods.
Confessional: Scott
"We're behind the Maggots and disadvantaged, and I'm going to keep it that way," Scott grinned.
Confessional Ends
The camera moved to a nondescript patch of ground somewhere, a muffled pounding sound coming from below it. Amy was then heard grunting in annoyance, and the scene cut inside her chest as she frantically pulled out a cellphone. "Chris and his crummy show can just burn to the ground," she complained as she started dialing.
A ringing came over the phone, and the screen split down the middle to show Chris answering on the left. "Hello~?" he opened with an almost mocking singsong voice.
"You've gone too far," Amy said. "You can't just-"
She was interrupted by a loud snore coming from within the coffin.
"Was that you?" Chris asked.
"No it wasn't," Amy responded. "This girl's a heavy snorer, and it's driving me nuts."
Chris shrugged as he stowed his phone back in his pocket. "I'm sure she's fine," he said to himself.
\
The scene moved to the Maggots, the four of them arriving at the edge of what the camera soon panned over to show was a massive swamp with smelly, bubbling green water dotted with toxic waste barrels.
Immediately the four began to cough. "This smells like gym socks and skunks in one big burrito," Molly griped.
"According to the map, there's a path around the swamp," Scarlett said, looking at the map in her hands, "but it'll take too long, though."
"We'll just have to go through the stink," Geoff shrugged.
"As long as the Rats don't follow us, I'll go along with it," Anne Maria said before they ran into the swamp.
\
A large purple dragonfly landed atop a stump in another part of the swamp. A pale purple frog sitting on a lilypad nearby promptly shot its tongue out at the dragonfly, only to yelp as the insect caught the tongue in its mouth and bit down hard.
The camera panned to the left, showing the edge of the swamp again as the Toxic Rats arrived.
"Ugh," Sierra immediately complained, her face scrunched up in disgust. "That smell is disgusting!"
"Smells like home," Scott sighed happily.
"We have no other choice. We have to go through here," Trent said.
"Now you're speaking my language," Scott smiled before the two ran through the swamp.
DJ and Sierra were about to jump in, but were stopped by Sammy holding them. "Why did you stop us, Sammy?" Sierra asked.
"You may or may not believe me before, but I need to tell you to vote Scott off if we lose," Sammy begged.
"Why do you want Scott gone?" DJ wondered.
"I've been thinking about it, and I eventually realized that Scott's the one who framed Leshawna," Sammy said. "And I also realized he's the one who paralyzed me with the seagull."
"Why would Scott do that?" DJ asked curiously.
"I don't know, but he's probably trying to sabotage us and pick us off one by one," Sammy replied.
"Scott did try to leave during the trivia challenge," Sierra remembered.
"Are you sure you're telling the truth?" DJ asked the cheerleader. "I wasn't on this team to start with."
"If you don't believe me when I say he's throwing the challenges, then just help me vote him off," Sammy pleaded.
"To be fair, he's super obnoxious and rude," Sierra considered. "I'll definitely vote for him next."
"So will I," DJ agreed. "Mama always taught me to stay away from negative influences." The three jumped into the swamp when their conversation ended.
The camera lingered after they left, just long enough to catch the the dragonfly from earlier buzzing out of the swamp still carrying the frog by its tongue.
\
The scene moved back to the Maggots, Molly and Geoff trailing behind their teammates.
"I say we dispose of Molly should we lose this round," Scarlett said to Anne Maria. "She's not the most supportive player here, and I know you don't want to separate from Geoff."
"Well, Molly hasn't left us behind again, and I'm not going to hold that over her," Anne Maria said, looking back at her map...and unwittingly walking up onto something rough and green and scaly.
She was cut off by an ominous growling below her, and looked down and ahead just as the small, beady eyes of an alligator rose above the surface of the swamp.
The mutant beast promptly reared up, revealing its long tusks, spines, and tentacle-like forelimbs and tossing both Anne Maria and the map into the water. She and Scarlett quickly went back and regrouped with Geoff and Molly, and all four screamed and ran forward just before the mutant alligator pounced onto the spot they'd just been standing in.
"We can hide in that tree!" Molly exclaimed, the camera following to a large tree in the swamp ahead of them. The four quickly ran over to it, Molly giving Scarlett a boost into it before scrambling into the branches herself.
"It's coming back!" Scarlett told them as Geoff pulled Anne Maria up into the tree next. The tanned girl looked back over her shoulder and gasped in fear as the shot quickly cut to the massive mutant swimming towards them, then roaring and pouncing. Anne Maria was pulled up just in time and the alligator slammed head-first into the tree's protruding roots. The whole tree shook, but the camera panned up to show that the Maggots had managed to hang on.
"You're a lifesaver, Party Hat," Anne Maria told the boy who'd pulled her up.
Confessional: Anne Maria
Whenever we're together, Geoff tends to act cool or dumb around me," Anne Maria stated to the camera. "And who can blame him? Check me out. The tan, the hair. Look at me, I'm hot!"
Confessional Ends
"We better leave before that thing wakes up," Anne Maria said, the camera panning up from a shot of the stunned mutant alligator lying at the base of the tree.
"Good idea," Geoff told her before dropping back down into the water. His teammates joined him, and the shot quickly focused on Anne Maria as she pulled out the tattered remains of the map.
"The map's ripped," she spoke.
"That's not a big deal," Molly told her. "We still have our compass, so we'll know where we're going."
"And lucky for us, I kept a hold of the compass," Scarlett said as she held up the object.
Confessional: Scarlett
"I let Anne Maria hold the map for us so if it got ripped, it'll give Molly a reason to try and convince Geoff to vote for me," Scarlett confessed. "Irresponsibility is a big factor as to why previous players got eliminated."
Confessional Ends
The static cut to the five Rats watching the alligator looking around from behind a tree.
"Okay," DJ said, "if we circle around a bit, we can avoid the alligator."
"I don't think we can avoid all of them," Sammy spoke nervously, drawing the team's attention behind the group to a pair of smaller, paler alligators that were swimming towards.
Sierra turned around and smiled confidently. "Don't worry, I'll take care of them," she said. "You guys go get that chest!"
"But-" Sammy said.
"Just go!" Sierra demanded, prompting her teammates to leave.
The two smaller alligators hissed menacingly while Sierra stood her ground and said "I'm not going out without a fight!" The two alligators pounced on her as she let out a scream.
\
"So which way do we go next?" Geoff asked his team.
Scarlett walked ahead a bit. "Moss grows on the northern side of trees and Chris said our goal is to the north, so we need to go that way," the brainiac pointed to the right.
The camera cut to the outskirts of a massive forest of thorn bushes. "We have to go through a thorn bush forest?" Geoff asked in shock and horror.
"Of course not. We go through there," Scarlett pointed to a route closer to the camera and around the thorns.
The Maggots shared a look of wide-eyed shock. "Okay, that's better," Anne Maria nodded.
She, Scarlett, Molly, and Geoff quickly ran off to the right.
\
A flash took the scene to the edge of a clearing with the thick thorn bush forest visible a little ways in the background. The Maggots arrived from the left, and immediately looked around.
"This clearing is just like the one on the map," Anne Maria said as the group moved further into the clearing and started digging.
The Rats were shown arriving later. "The Rats are already digging!" Scott complained.
"And where's Sierra?" Trent asked.
As if of cue, the obsessive uberfan -now sporting a black eye and tattered attire - arrived. "I told you I could fend them off," she woozily bragged. "They gave up after I lost most of my blood." She then passed out and fell near a rock that caused her metal detector to go off. DJ smiled and kicked the rock away to reveal a ring with two keys.
"Two keys?" DJ mused. "The small one must be for the cuffs!"
\
The footage skipped ahead to an unlocked penalty belt falling around DJ's feet. The camera panned up to show him and Sammy examining the other key.
"This one must be for the treasure chest," DJ said.
"Hey guys, I can feel Amy pounding below me!" Scott lied to his team. "We must dig here!"
"Got it," Sammy nodded.
As Sammy and DJ used their metal detectors to dig through the dirt, and Sierra still looking passed out, Scott dragged Trent to a distance away from the team.
"If I tell you something, do you promise to keep it a secret?" Scott whispered.
"Of course. What is it?" Trent pondered, to which Scott took out the invincibility statue. "The invincibility statue?"
"I still can't believe I found it," Scott said. "I looked up a tree and the statue was hidden in the leaves."
"And why are you showing me the statue now?" Trent wondered.
"I just wanted you to trust me," Scott followed up. "Our teammates are obviously going to vote for me, and if I use this, it'll cancel out the votes against me."
"I'm not ready for you to leave yet," Trent smiled. "Thanks for letting me know you'll be safe."
The shot cut to the Maggots digging their hole with Scarlett poking her head out. "The Rats are here, so we need to hurry!" she called out. "How deep did Chris bury them?"
"You don't need to worry about that anymore, because we just found the chest!" Molly said as the lid swung open and Amy quickly hopped out.
"That was insufferable to go through!" Amy panted before walking away from the scene.
"And the Maggots win," Chris called down to them all as he arrived in the helicopter.
With the exception of Scott, the Rats gasped in disappointment while in their hole. "You said you heard them here!" Sammy told the devious boy.
DJ pulled himself out of the hole and ran over to where the Maggots were standing. "Don't worry, Katie! I'll get you out of there!"
He jumped into the Maggots' hole and held Katie in his arms. "Katie! Are you fine? Please wake up!" he told her.
Katie's eyes began to open up, and when she saw DJ holding her, she smiled joyfully. "DJ? Is that you?"
Confessional: Katie
"If eating a lot of turkey makes me fall asleep and wake up into the arms of a really cute guy, I'm ordering 100 packs of turkey when I get home!" Katie confessed.
Confessional: Trent
"Scott told me to vote off DJ with him so we wouldn't be dealing with a threat," Trent admitted. "I don't want to do this to a past and current teammate, but Scott does bring up a good point."
Confessionals End
It was now night time, and after a brief focus on the moon accompanied by a hooting owl, the camera panned down to DJ and Katie sitting together on the steps of the Rats' cabin.
"Sorry you had to go through being buried underground like that," DJ talked to the perky influencer.
"Chris is very underhanded. I'll tell you that," Katie responded.
"I remember you telling me you liked me the day you got hurled out of the island," DJ smiled awkwardly.
"You do?!" Katie's eyebrows raised up.
"Yep, and I never got to respond to you about that," DJ said.
"Well, if you feel differently about what I-" Katie tried to say, but got cut off by DJ touching her lips with his own.
They kissed for a few seconds before they stopped, the two of them looking awkwardly happy.
"That was my way of saying I love you too," DJ said. "I'll have to talk to Mama about this, but once she approves, we can begin our relationship."
"Oh, definitely. I have to go now, but I want you to know I'll be cheering you on from the sidelines," Katie eagerly replied back before they hugged each other affectionately.
\
The scene flashed to a long-distance shot of the island. Another flash, and the camera cut to the campfire pit where the Rats - except for Sierra - were waiting nervously. Chris was in his oil drum podium bearing not a tray of marshmallows, but four slips of small, yellowed paper.
"Okay, players," Chris opened. "The votes are tallied. And by a tied vote, tonight's losers are none other than..."
"Wait," Trent interrupted. "Where are the marshmallows? And more importantly, where's Sierra."
"The marshmallows were eaten by a hungry me," Chris bragged, "and Sierra was deemed too injured and woozy from the alligator attack, so we had her evacuated from the game for good."
"Really?!" Sammy's eyes widened. "Aw. I hope she gets better soon."
"Regardless, I'm still carrying on with the ceremony," Chris continued and read from his slip. "The people with the same amount of votes are…"
Sammy looked at DJ nervously, and DJ took a look at Scott narrowing his eyes at them, to which Trent started feeling worried.
"DJ and Scott."
Trent gasped at the news while Scott looked taken back at first. The dirt farmer soon composed himself and said "Sorry. But I ain't going nowhere." Scott pulled out the statue and flipped it on his hand.
"What!?" Sammy yelped in surprise with DJ gaping as well.
"The invincibility statue! Nice! That means Scott is safe," Chris announced jovially. "This also means that the tiebreaker will be avoided, because tonight, thanks to Trent and Scott, DJ is going home!"
DJ was stunned to hear the news and looked down in disappointment.
"But... no hard feelings, dude. You will be missed," Chris reminded the eliminated contestant.
Trent stood up from his seat. "Sorry for eliminating you, but maybe a group hug can sort things out."
Scott and Sammy followed suit, and eventually, DJ, Sammy, Scott, and Trent were all embracing each other and hugging happily.
\
The scene cut to the docks, where DJ was on the Hurl of Shame as Chris and Chef watched on.
"Ready to fly, DJ?" Chris asked the gentle giant.
"The sooner I'm out of here, the sooner I can talk to Mama about Katie," DJ confirmed, and then, without warning, he was sent flying into the night with a scream.
The camera panned to Chris as he faced the camera with his usual smiling demeanor as the usual cymbal beats opened the series' capstone theme. "And that's another loser out of the game. Come back for even more painful awesomeness, next time, on Total! Drama! Revenge, of the Island!"
(Roll the Credits)
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